Inclusive Economics Growth Determinants

This research focuses on inclusive economic growth and its determinants in Indonesia. It uses the yearly data from 2015 until 2021 in 34 provinces of Indonesia. The scope of this study includes inclusive growth, human capital development in term of health and education, public investment and private investments.

Meanwhile, the type of research data in this study is secondary data taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Directorate General of Financial Balance (DPJK). The data used is annual data. Then, the term inclusive economic growth in this study borrows the definition by UNDP (Kjøller-Hansen & Sperling, 2020) Growth is beneficial and involves all levels of society, focusing on employment as an indicator of inclusive growth.

Since the concept of inclusive growth relates to economic growth in term of GDP and also the inclusion in the process and outcome of growth, this study accordingly utilizes log of GDP per person employed as a proxy for inclusive growth. The variable log of GDP per person employed represents the average participation opportunities available to the population and how those opportunities are distributed within the population. Central Bureau of Statistics defines GDP growth per person employed as the average real GDP growth rate compared to the number of people employed yearly. The higher the GDP growth rate per person employed, the higher the region's inclusive growth. This study used real GRDP because of the study units at the provincial level. In addition, real GRDP or GRDP at constant prices eliminates the effects of inflation on economic growth.

Furthermore, this study uses high school attainment rate as the proxy for education level in correspondence to the reviewed literature. Meanwhile, the health level variable is defined as the percentage of population with chronic and acute health complains in a month. The higher the health complains, the lower health quality level in a population. Moreover, the public investment is represented by log of realized government capital expenditure and the private investment is measured by the log of sum of realized foreign direct investment and domestic investment. In addition, structural transformation is represented by the proportion of formal sector workers in percentage, while trade openness is measured using the proportion of sum of export and import, both international and interprovincial ones, to GDP.

The finding of this research shows that high school graduation rate, private investment, trade openness and formal sector employment have statistically positive and significant impacts on inclusive growth. Meanwhile, health complains has a negative and significant impact on inclusive growth. In addition, public investment has a negative and insignificant impact on inclusive growth. The findings of this study underscore the importance of human development, infrastructure development and structural transformation as policy areas of focus for inclusive growth.

本研究聚焦印度尼西亚的包容性经济增长（inclusive economic growth）及其影响因素。研究采用2015年至2021年印度尼西亚34个省份的年度数据。本研究的研究范畴涵盖包容性增长、以健康与教育维度衡量的人力资本发展、公共投资与私人投资。
本研究的研究数据类型为二手数据，取自印度尼西亚中央统计局（Central Bureau of Statistics）与财政平衡总局（Directorate General of Financial Balance, DPJK），所用数据为年度数据。本研究中的包容性经济增长术语采用联合国开发计划署（UNDP, Kjøller-Hansen & Sperling, 2020）的定义：增长具有普惠性且覆盖社会各阶层，以就业作为包容性增长的衡量指标。
由于包容性增长的概念既涉及以国内生产总值（GDP）衡量的经济增长，也关乎增长过程与成果的包容性，因此本研究采用就业人员人均GDP的对数作为包容性增长的代理变量。就业人员人均GDP的对数这一变量，代表了民众可获得的平均参与机会，以及这些机会在人群中的分配情况。印度尼西亚中央统计局将就业人员人均GDP增长率定义为：年度就业人数相较下的实际平均GDP增长率。就业人员人均GDP增长率越高，该地区的包容性增长水平也就越高。鉴于本研究以省级行政单位为分析单元，本研究采用实际地区生产总值（GRDP）；此外，以不变价格计算的实际地区生产总值（GRDP）可消除通货膨胀对经济增长的影响。
此外，本研究参考相关文献，采用高中毕业率作为教育水平的代理变量。健康水平变量则定义为：一个月内患有慢性与急性健康病症的人口占比。健康病症发生率越高，人群的健康质量水平越低。公共投资以政府实际资本支出的对数来表征，私人投资则以实际外商直接投资与国内投资总额的对数来衡量。此外，结构转型以正规部门就业人员占比来表征，贸易开放度则以进出口（含国际与省际贸易）总额占GDP的比重来衡量。
本研究的结果显示，高中毕业率、私人投资、贸易开放度与正规部门就业对包容性增长具有统计意义上显著的正向影响。与此同时，健康病症发生率对包容性增长具有显著的负向影响。此外，公共投资对包容性增长的影响为负，但不具备统计显著性。本研究的结果凸显了人类发展、基础设施建设与结构转型作为包容性增长政策重点领域的重要性。