Supplementary Material for: Long-term trends in the burden of migraine in China: A comprehensive analysis from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2035

Introduction
Migraine is a widespread neurological disorder that significantly affects quality of life. Yet data on its burden in China remain limited. This study analyzes long-term trends (1990-2021) and projects future patterns.
Methods
Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, we examined migraine incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Temporal trends were assessed via joinpoint regression, while age-period-cohort (APC) analysis and decomposition analyses identified key influences. Bayesian APC modeling projected future trends through 2035.
Results
Migraine imposes a substantial health burden in China, with an annual incidence of 13.04 million cases, a prevalence of 184.75 million cases, and 6.98 million DALYs cases. Female is disproportionately affected, with peak prevalence occurs in the 30-49 age group. Individuals born post-1960 show increased susceptibility, like linked to demographic and lifestyle shifts. Population growth is a major driver of rising prevalence, with projections indicating a continued increase through 2035.
Conclusion
Migraine remains a significant public health concern in China, particularly among women. Targeted prevention, early detection, and intervention strategies are essential to mitigate its growing burden.

引言
偏头痛是一种广泛存在的神经系统疾病，对生活质量影响显著。然而，关于其在中国的疾病负担数据仍较为有限。本研究分析了1990-2021年的长期趋势并预测未来模式。
方法
本研究利用全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease, GBD）2021数据库，分析了偏头痛的发病率、患病率及伤残调整生命年（disability-adjusted life years, DALYs）。通过连接点回归（joinpoint regression）评估时间趋势，同时采用年龄-时期-队列（age-period-cohort, APC）分析及分解分析识别关键影响因素。贝叶斯APC模型预测了截至2035年的未来趋势。
结果
偏头痛在中国造成了沉重的健康负担，年发病率达1304万例，患病率为18475万例，DALYs为698万例。女性受影响程度不成比例，患病率峰值出现在30-49岁年龄组。1960年后出生的人群易感性增加，这与人口结构及生活方式变化相关。人口增长是患病率上升的主要驱动因素，预测显示截至2035年这一趋势将持续。
结论
偏头痛仍是中国重要的公共卫生问题，尤其在女性群体中。针对性预防、早期检测及干预策略对于减轻其日益加重的负担至关重要。