Framework for quantifying population responses to disturbance reveals that coastal birds are highly resilient to hurricanes

Changes in the frequency and severity of extreme weather may introduce new threats to species that are already under stress from gradual habitat loss and climate change. We provide a probabilistic framework that quantifies potential threats by applying concepts from ecological resilience to single populations. Our approach uses computation to compare disturbance-impacted projections to a population’s normal range of variation, quantifying the full range of potential impacts. We illustrate this framework with projection models for coastal birds, which are commonly depicted as vulnerable to disturbances, especially hurricanes and oil spills. We found that populations of coastal specialists are resilient to extreme disturbances, with high resistance to the effects of short-term reductions in vital rates and recovery within 20 years. Applying the general framework presented here across disturbance-prone species and ecosystems would improve understanding of population resilience and generate specific projections of resilience that are needed for effective conservation planning.

极端天气发生频率与强度的变化，可能给本已因渐进式栖息地丧失与气候变化而承受生存压力的物种带来新的威胁。我们提出了一套概率框架，通过将生态恢复力（ecological resilience）的相关概念应用于单一种群，以量化其潜在威胁。本方法借助计算手段，将受干扰影响的种群预测结果与种群正常变异范围进行对比，从而量化潜在影响的全部范围。我们以海岸鸟类的预测模型为例阐释该框架——这类物种常被认为易受各类干扰影响，尤其易受飓风与原油泄漏的威胁。研究发现，海岸特化种群对极端干扰具备恢复力，对生命率短期下降的抗性较强，且可在20年内完成种群恢复。将本文提出的通用框架应用于易受干扰的物种与生态系统，将有助于深化对种群恢复力的理解，并生成有效保护规划所需的针对性恢复力预测结果。