Freshwater runoff for Taylor Slough to Florida Bay for 1965 to 2000 for the FATHOM model

The Florida Bay ecosystem supports a number of economically important ecosystem services, including several recreational fisheries, which may be affected by changing salinity and temperature due to climate change. In this paper, we use a combination of physical models and habitat suitability index models to quantify the effects of potential climate change scenarios on a variety of juvenile fish and lobster species in Florida Bay. The climate scenarios include alterations in sea level, evaporation and precipitation rates, coastal runoff, and water temperature. We find that the changes in habitat suitability vary in both magnitude and direction across the scenarios and species, but are on average small. Only one of the seven species we investigate (Lagodon rhomboides, i.e., pinfish) sees a sizable decrease in optimal habitat under any of the scenarios. This suggests that the estuarine fauna of Florida Bay may not be as vulnerable to climate change as other components of the ecosystem, such as those in the marine/terrestrial ecotone. However, these models are relatively simplistic, looking only at single species effects of physical drivers without considering the many interspecific interactions that may play a key role in the adjustment of the ecosystem as a whole. More complex models that capture the mechanistic links between physics and biology, as well as the complex dynamics of the estuarine food web, may be necessary to further understand the potential effects of climate change on the Florida Bay ecosystem.

佛罗里达湾生态系统支撑着多项具有重要经济价值的生态系统服务，其中包含若干休闲渔业，而这些服务可能会受到气候变化引发的盐度与温度变化的影响。本文结合物理模型与栖息地适宜性指数模型（habitat suitability index models），量化了潜在气候变化情景对佛罗里达湾多种幼鱼及龙虾类物种的影响。本次考量的气候变化情景涵盖海平面变动、蒸发与降水速率变化、沿岸径流以及水温变化。研究结果显示，不同情景与物种对应的栖息地适宜性变化在幅度与方向上均存在差异，但整体平均变化幅度较小。在本次研究所涉及的7个物种中，仅菱体兔牙鲷（Lagodon rhomboides，俗称斑鳍鲷（pinfish））在任意情景下的最优栖息地均出现了显著缩减。这表明佛罗里达湾的河口动物群可能并不像生态系统其他组分（如海洋-陆地生态交错带的物种）那样易受气候变化影响。不过，本研究所用模型相对简化，仅考量了物理驱动因子对单一物种的影响，未考虑诸多种间相互作用——而这些相互作用可能在整个生态系统的调整过程中发挥关键作用。若要进一步厘清气候变化对佛罗里达湾生态系统的潜在影响，或许需要构建能够捕捉物理过程与生物学过程间机制性关联，同时涵盖河口食物网复杂动态的更复杂模型。