Replication Data for \"Electoral Competitiveness and Turnout in British Elections, 1964-2010\"

Analyzing the British Election Study from 1964 to 2010, we examine the influence of electoral context on turnout, focusing on the closeness of elections in terms of lagged seat and constituency-level winning margins. Using cross-classified multilevel models to account for individual and contextual factors and disentangle life-cycle, cohort- and election-specific effects, we find that closeness strongly affects voting behavior, particularly among new electors. Widening seat margins in British elections over the last decades have had a persistent impact on turnout. Respondents who faced less competitive environments when young are more likely to abstain in subsequent elections than those reaching voting age after close-fought races. We conclude that variations in competitiveness have had both short- and long-term effects on turnout.

本研究依托1964年至2010年的英国选举研究（British Election Study）数据，考察选举情境对投票率（turnout）的影响，重点分析基于滞后席位与选区层面胜选差距的选举竞争激烈程度。我们采用交叉分类多层模型（cross-classified multilevel models）以控制个体与情境因素，并厘清生命周期效应、同期群（cohort）效应及选举特定效应。研究结果显示，选举竞争激烈程度对选民投票行为具有显著影响，尤其在新选民群体中表现突出。过去数十年间，英国选举中不断扩大的席位胜选差距对投票率产生了持续性影响：相较于在激烈角逐的选举结束后才达到投票年龄的受访者，年轻时身处低竞争选举环境的受访者在后续选举中更有可能放弃投票。本研究最终得出结论：选举竞争程度的变化对投票率兼具短期与长期影响。