The Impact of Carbon Capture Technologies on Consumer Prices

Despite the expanding literature evaluating the economic feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in the energy and power sector, there are no studies explicitly examining the resulting impacts on consumer prices particularly electricity prices and their variability. Using a Monte Carlo simulation built on recent profit-maximization models in an oligopolistic market, we examine how production and abatement costs, policy incentives including a carbon tax, renewable energy subsidies, and CCS subsidies and energy demand parameters influence the percentage of carbon captured by a producer operating a diverse portfolio of energy-generating technologies. Additionally, we assess how these factors contribute to fluctuations in consumer prices for renewable and non-renewable energy products. Our findings suggest that when mixed-asset generators optimize carbon abatement to
maximize profits, the relationship between the percentage of carbon captured and consumer prices varies by energy source. Carbon capture can lower consumer prices of fossil-based products up to a certain threshold, driven by net benefits from subsidies and tax savings, while the price of greener products sees a modest increase due to the net costs of shifting production from renewable to non-renewable assets. Despite this, renewable generation remains the more cost-effective option for consumers. Thus, policymakers could incentivize a hybrid energy strategy that accelerates the transition to renewable generation while employing carbon capture as a transitional measure to mitigate emissions from fossil fuel-based technologies during the shift.

尽管目前已有日益增多的研究文献评估能源电力领域碳捕集与封存（CCS）技术的经济可行性，但尚无研究专门探讨该技术对消费者价格、尤其是电价及其波动性的具体影响。
本研究基于寡头垄断市场中最新的利润最大化模型构建蒙特卡洛模拟（Monte Carlo simulation），探究生产成本、减排成本、碳税、可再生能源补贴、CCS补贴等政策激励措施，以及能源需求参数，如何影响拥有多元化发电技术组合的生产商的碳捕集比例。此外，本研究还评估了上述因素对可再生与非可再生能源产品消费者价格波动的影响机制。
研究结果表明，当拥有混合资产的发电企业通过优化碳减排措施实现利润最大化时，碳捕集比例与消费者价格之间的关联因能源品类而异。得益于补贴与税收减免带来的净收益，碳捕集可将化石基能源产品的消费者价格降至某一阈值以下；而由于将生产从可再生资产转向非可再生资产产生的净成本，绿色能源产品的价格会出现小幅上涨。即便如此，可再生能源发电仍是对消费者而言更具成本效益的选择。
据此，政策制定者可推动混合型能源战略，在加速向可再生能源发电转型的同时，将碳捕集作为转型期内降低化石燃料类技术排放的过渡性手段。