South Sudan - Regional Intention Survey of South Sudanese Refugees in Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of The Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda 2019

The South Sudan situation is currently the largest refugee situation on the African continent. There are over 2.2 million refugees spread across Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Kenya, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), and the Central African Republic (CAR) a further 1.8 million people are displaced internally in South Sudan. An estimated 140,000 South Sudanese spontaneously returnees are reported to have returned to South Sudan from November 2018 to date.The South Sudan situation continues to be characterized as a children's tragedy with children constituting over 65 percent of the refugee population. The Revitalised Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) foresees the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU) with all the parties in agreement including the leader of the SPLA IO and first vice president by May 2019.In November 2018, it was agreed during the Kampala Representatives meeting that intention surveys should be conducted for South Sudanese refugees in all countries of asylum. This was further concretized in March 2019, during the EHA/GLR planning meeting; here it was decided that UNHCR country representations of CAR, Kenya, Uganda, DRC, Sudan, Ethiopia would ensure that a rapid intention survey of South Sudanese refugees in their respective asylum countries is carried out before May 2019, in line with the agreed calendar of the R-ARCSSThe Intention Survey was a cross-sectional survey conducted among the over 2.2 million South Sudanese refugees living in six countries of asylum using a stratified random sampling approach to survey 6,964 refugees (heads of households) in 15 camps selected across the region. In each location, sample size estimation assumed a 95 per cent confidence level, and a margin of error of 7 per cent; sample was drawn taking into account the location, place of origin, ethnicity, year of arrival to the country of asylum and gender of the head of household. The confidence intervals were taken into consideration in all the tables and analysis. Security, access and logistical constraints restricted sampling in some locations, therefore weighting was applied to adjust for unequal selection probabilities in each of the 15 locations. The findings of this report are representative of the return intentions of refugee households in these 15 camps. Data was collected through in-person interviews using a harmonised survey that was conducted concurrently in the six countries in May 2019 with a mobile data collection tool (KoBo Toolkit). Questionnaires were administered to consenting refugees aged 12 years and above. Children below 12 years of age were excluded from the survey.

当前南苏丹局势是非洲大陆规模最大的难民危机。逾220万难民遍布苏丹、乌干达、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、刚果民主共和国（Democratic Republic of the Congo，简称DRC）以及中非共和国（Central African Republic，简称CAR）境内；另有180万民众在南苏丹国内流离失所。据报告，2018年11月至今，已有约14万南苏丹人自发返国。
南苏丹局势俨然成为一场儿童悲剧：难民群体中儿童占比超65%。《南苏丹冲突解决振兴协定》（Revitalised Agreement for the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan，简称R-ARCSS）要求各方于2019年5月前组建民族团结政府（Government of National Unity，简称GNU），其中包括苏丹人民解放运动反对派（Sudan People's Liberation Army in Opposition，简称SPLA IO）领导人出任第一副总统。
2018年11月，在坎帕拉代表会议上各方达成共识，需对所有庇护国境内的南苏丹难民开展意向调查。该共识在2019年3月的EHA/GLR规划会议中进一步得到明确：由中非共和国、肯尼亚、乌干达、刚果民主共和国、苏丹、埃塞俄比亚的联合国难民署（United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees，简称UNHCR）国家办事处确保，于2019年5月前在各自庇护国境内开展南苏丹难民返乡意向快速调查，以契合R-ARCSS既定时间表。
本次意向调查为横断面调查，针对居住在6个庇护国的逾220万南苏丹难民开展，采用分层随机抽样方法，在区域内15个难民营中抽取6964户难民户主作为调查对象。各调查点的样本量估算均设定95%置信水平与7%误差幅度；抽样过程综合考虑了调查地点、原籍地、族裔、抵达庇护国年份以及户主性别等因素。所有表格与分析均纳入了置信区间考量。由于部分地点受安全、通行及后勤条件限制无法完成抽样，故通过加权调整15个调查点间不等的抽样概率。本报告的调查结果可代表上述15个难民营中难民家庭的返乡意向。
调查数据于2019年5月通过面对面访谈采集，采用六国同步开展的统一调查问卷，并使用移动数据采集工具KoBo Toolkit完成数据录入。问卷面向12岁及以上同意参与的难民发放，12岁以下儿童被排除在本次调查之外。