Betting on Secession: Quantifying Political Events Surrounding Slavery and the Civil War

Abraham Lincoln's election produced Southern secession, Civil War, and abolition. Using a new database of slave sales from New Orleans, we examine the connections between political news and the prices of slaves for 1856-1861. We find that slave prices declined by roughly a third from their 1860 peak

亚伯拉罕·林肯（Abraham Lincoln）的当选引发了南方各州脱离联邦、内战及奴隶制废除。借助新奥尔良（New Orleans）的奴隶交易数据库，我们考察了1856至1861年间政治新闻与奴隶价格之间的关联。研究发现，奴隶价格从1860年的峰值下降了约三分之一。