Data and Code for: Immigration, Innovation, and Growth

We propose a novel identification strategy to isolate exogenous immigration shocks across US counties, by interacting quasi-random variations in the composition of ancestry
across counties with the contemporaneous inflow of migrants from different countries. We
show a positive causal impact of immigration on local innovation and wages at the 5-year
horizon. The positive dynamic impact of immigration on innovation and wages dominates
the short-run negative impact of increased labor supply. A structural estimation of a
model of endogenous growth and migrations suggests the increased immigration to the
US since 1965 may have increased innovation and wages by 5%.

我们提出了一种新颖的识别策略，用以剥离美国各县层面的外生移民冲击：通过将各县祖先构成的准随机变异，与同期来自不同国家的移民流入量进行交互。研究表明，在5年时间维度上，移民对本地创新与工资水平存在正向的因果影响。移民对创新与工资的正向动态影响，盖过了劳动力供给增加所带来的短期负向冲击。对内生增长与移民模型开展的结构估计结果显示，1965年以来美国移民规模的增长，可能使美国的创新水平与工资水平提升了5%。