Estimates of the date of emergence and other epidemiological indicators resulting from the calibrated model.

Here we summarize the estimates obtained from the numerical application of our model to two epidemiological contexts: the Alpha variant infections in UK, and the first COVID-19 cases reported in Wuhan. Median and 95% interpercentile (IPR) ranges across retained simulations are shown, unless stated otherwise. The estimated time elapsed between the first infection to the Nth observed case yields the estimated emergence date. The earliest date corresponds to the lower bound of the emergence dates distribution. In addition, we estimate the epidemic size at the date of detection of the Nth case. The proportion of detected infections and mean secondary cases are retrieved for comparison with the input epidemic parameters.

本研究对本文提出的模型在两类流行病学场景下的数值应用所得估计值进行汇总：其一为英国境内的Alpha变异株（Alpha variant）感染疫情，其二为武汉报告的首批新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）确诊病例相关场景。除非另有说明，结果均展示经筛选保留的模拟结果中的中位数及95%百分间距（interpercentile range, IPR）区间。由首例感染至第N例报告病例的估算时长，可推导出疫情出现的估计日期；该分布中的最早日期对应疫情出现日期的下界。此外，本研究还估算了第N例病例被检出时的疫情规模。本研究同时提取检出感染比例与平均二代感染数，用于与输入的流行病学参数开展对比验证。