CCSRNIES_SRES_B2_TMP200

Project: IPCC Data Distribution Centre : Third Assessment Report data sets
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been established by WMO und UNEP
to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information, relevant for the
understanding of climate change, its potential impacts and option for adaption and migration.
Projection of future trends for a number of key variables are provided through this
section of the DDC (http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html).
This information contained in either IS92 emission scenarios (IPCC 1992), the Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC 2000, SRES) or published model studies using data from
these scenarios.
Six alternative IPCC scenarios (IS92a to f) were published in the 1992 Supplementary Report
to the IPCC Assessment. These scenarios embodied a wide array of assumption affecting how
future greenhouse gas emissions might evolve in the absence of climate policies beyond
those already adoped.
The SRES scenarios have been constructed to explore future developments
in the global enviromental with special reference to the production of greenhouse gases
and aerosol precursor emission.
A set of four scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2) have been developed that each of this
storylines describes one possible demographic, polito-economic, societal and technological
future. Model experiments, also using different forcing scenarios, were calculated
at other modeling centres.
Emissions Scenarios. 2000 ,Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Nebojsa Nakicenovic and Rob Swart (Eds.)
Cambridge University Press, UK. pp 570
Summary: The SRES data sets were published by the IPCC in 2000 and classified
into four different scenario families (A1, A2, B1, B2).
SRES_B2 storyline describes a world in which the emphasis is on
local solutions to economic, social and enviromental sustainability.
The global population is increasing at a lower rate than A2. It has
an intermediate level of economic development and a less rapid and
more diverse technological change than in A1 and B1.
The model developed by the Center for Climate System Resaerch/National
Institute for Enviromental Studies in Tokyo consists of the atmospheric
component which has vertical resolution of 20 levels and the triangular
truncation at wavenumber 21 (T21). The ocean model has 17 vertical
levels and the same resolution.
CCSRNIES_AGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html )
CCSRNIES_OGCM (http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html )
The changes of anthropogenic emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O and sulphur
dioxide are prescribed according to the above mentioned scenario.

项目：政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）数据分发中心（Data Distribution Centre, DDC）第三次评估报告数据集

世界气象组织（World Meteorological Organization, WMO）与联合国环境规划署（United Nations Environment Programme, UNEP）联合设立了政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC），旨在评估与气候变化认知、潜在影响以及适应与减缓相关的科学、技术与社会经济信息。本数据分发中心（DDC）对应板块（http://www.mad.zmaw.de/IPCC_DDC/html/ddc_gcmdata.html）提供了若干关键变量的未来趋势预测结果。

本数据集所载信息均来自IS92排放情景（IPCC 1992）、《排放情景特别报告》（Special Report on Emission Scenarios, SRES，IPCC 2000），或基于上述情景数据开展的已发表模型研究。

IPCC在1992年《评估报告补充报告》中发布了6种备选情景（IS92a至IS92f）。这些情景涵盖了一系列假设条件，用以阐释在未实施额外气候政策的前提下，未来温室气体排放的演化路径。

SRES情景的构建初衷是探究全球环境的未来发展趋势，重点关注温室气体与气溶胶前体物的排放情况。本次共构建了4组情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2），每组情景均对应一种可能的人口、政治经济、社会与技术发展路径。其他建模中心也基于不同的强迫情景开展了模型模拟实验。

《排放情景》，2000年，政府间气候变化专门委员会特别报告，Nebojsa Nakicenovic与Rob Swart（主编），英国剑桥大学出版社，共570页。

摘要：SRES数据集由IPCC于2000年发布，共分为4个情景族（A1、A2、B1、B2）。

SRES_B2情景对应的发展路径描绘了一个以本地化方案解决经济、社会与环境可持续发展问题的世界。该情景下全球人口增速低于A2情景，经济发展水平处于中等区间，技术变革速度较A1与B1情景更为缓慢且类型更为多元。

由东京气候系统研究中心（Center for Climate System Research, CCSR）/国立环境研究所（National Institute for Environmental Studies, NIES）开发的模型包含大气分量与海洋分量：大气分量垂直分辨率为20层，采用波数21的三角形截断格式（T21）；海洋分量同样拥有17层垂直分辨率，且分辨率与大气分量一致。

CCSRNIES_AGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eatmos.html）；CCSRNIES_OGCM（http://www.ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp/ehtml/eocean.html）

二氧化碳（CO₂）、甲烷（CH₄）、一氧化二氮（N₂O）与二氧化硫的人为排放变化均严格遵循前述情景设定。