Can Employment Reduce Lawlessness and Rebellion? A Field Experiment with High-Risk Men in a Fragile State

States and aid agencies use employment programs to rehabilitate high-risk men in the belief that peaceful work opportunities will deter them from crime and violence. Rigorous evidence is rare. We experimentally evaluate a program of agricultural training, capital inputs, and counseling for Liberian ex-fighters who were illegally mining or occupying rubber plantations. 14 months after the program ended, men who accepted the program offer increased their farm employment and profits, and shifted work hours away from illicit activities. Men also reduced interest in mercenary work in a nearby war. Finally, some men did not receive their capital inputs but expected a future cash transfer instead, and they reduced illicit and mercenary activities most of all. The evidence suggests that illicit and mercenary labor supply responds to small changes in returns to peaceful work, especially future and ongoing incentives. But the impacts of training alone, without capital, appear to be low.

各国政府与援助机构均推出就业项目以对高风险男性群体开展矫治工作，其核心理念为：合法稳定的工作机会能够遏制其实施犯罪与暴力行为。当前严谨的实证研究证据较为匮乏。本研究针对曾非法采矿或侵占橡胶种植园的利比里亚前战斗人员，采用实验法评估了一项涵盖农业培训、生产性资金投入与咨询辅导的帮扶项目。项目结束14个月后，参与该项目的男性群体在农业领域的就业率与经营收益均有所提升，同时将工作时长从非法活动转移至合法领域。此外，他们对参与邻近地区冲突中雇佣军工作的兴趣也有所降低。值得注意的是，部分男性未获得项目提供的生产性资金，而是预期未来将获得现金补助，这类群体减少非法活动与雇佣军参与的效果最为显著。研究证据表明，非法劳动与雇佣军劳动的供给意愿会随合法工作的收益小幅变化而调整，尤其是在当前激励与未来预期激励的影响下。但仅开展培训、未配套生产性资金投入的项目，其干预效果相对有限。