Baseline regression.

This paper constructs a theoretical model of biased production decisions due to the import of environmental intermediate goods. Additionally, it analyzes the influence of these imports on CO2 emissions based on the trade and CO2 emission data of Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2016. Furthermore, it empirically explores how environmental intermediate imports affect CO2 emissions. The study found the following: first, the import of environmental intermediate goods can effectively reduce CO2 emissions; this conclusion still holds under robustness and endogeneity tests. Second, the carbon emission reduction effect related to the import of environmental intermediate goods is affected by differences in geographical location, environmental pollution, sustainable development ability and government efficiency. Third, the mechanism test found that the import of environmental intermediate goods exerts emission reduction effects through the green technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading mechanisms. The conclusions of the research in this article provide a reference for coordinating trade development and environmental protection.

本文构建了因进口环境中间品（environmental intermediate goods）而产生的生产决策偏差理论模型。基于2000-2016年中国地级市层面的贸易与二氧化碳排放数据，本文分析了此类进口对二氧化碳排放的影响，并进一步实证探究了环境中间品进口对二氧化碳排放的作用路径。研究得出以下结论：其一，环境中间品进口可有效降低二氧化碳排放，该结论在稳健性检验与内生性检验下依然成立；其二，环境中间品进口的碳减排效应受地理位置、环境污染水平、可持续发展能力以及政府效率的异质性影响；其三，机制检验结果表明，环境中间品进口通过绿色技术创新与产业结构升级两条机制发挥减排作用。本文的研究结论为协调贸易发展与环境保护提供了有益参考。