Predictive tools for white syndromes in Northern Australia: targeting monitoring and informing management (MTSRF 2.5i.3, JCU, Uni Melbourne)

Climate change has emerged as the single greatest threat to coral reefs. The climate change threat will take many forms and includes projections that there will be higher abundances of coral diseases. Links have already been made between high temperatures and outbreaks of the disease ¿white syndrome¿ in the Indo-Pacific but little is known about the disease due, in part, to not knowing where outbreaks will occur. We present results of a regression model that suggests the most severe outbreaks of white syndrome observed on the Great Barrier Reef, in late 2002, only occurred at sites that experienced high rates of temperature increase during summer months, rates not seen again in the GBR until 2009. We have produced an image for each summer since and including 2002 that colour-grades and maps white syndrome outbreak likelihood for northern Australia as high or low. The images are based on retrospective calculations of summer rates of temperature increase from high-resolution remotely sensed temperature data. The interactive tool produced from the images is the first like it for coral disease and forms the early warning system within a new coral disease outbreak response plan. The tool will help to target research and monitoring that can improve our understanding of white syndrome outbreaks and determine whether actions can be taken by managers to reduce the susceptibility of corals to such diseases (Maynard et al. in review).\n\nThe data, presented as images, have no units. Pixels have been coloured red (~1 km resolution) that experienced heating rates at least as great as was experienced at sites where outbreaks of white syndromes occurred in the southern GBR late in 2002.\n\nThis dataset was developed as part of the MTSRF program.\n\nCite this dataset: Maynard J., Willis B. (2009) Predicting outbreaks of the coral disease white syndrome in northern Australia, e-Atlas, http://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98

气候变化已成为对珊瑚礁的最大单一威胁。气候变化的威胁将以多种形式呈现，其中包括珊瑚疾病发生率上升的预测。已有研究表明，高温与印度-太平洋地区“白化综合征（white syndrome）”的爆发存在关联，但由于部分原因（如未知爆发地点），人们对该疾病的了解仍十分有限。我们呈现的回归模型结果显示，2002年末在大堡礁（Great Barrier Reef）观测到的最严重白化综合征爆发，仅发生在夏季气温上升速率极高的区域——此类速率在2009年前未在大堡礁（GBR）再次出现。我们为2002年及之后的每个夏季生成了一幅图像，该图像通过颜色分级绘制澳大利亚北部白化综合征爆发的可能性（分为高或低）。这些图像基于高分辨率遥感温度数据对夏季气温上升速率的回顾性计算。基于这些图像开发的交互式工具是首个针对珊瑚疾病的此类工具，并构成了新珊瑚疾病爆发应对计划中的预警系统。该工具将有助于针对性地开展研究和监测，以加深我们对白化综合征爆发的理解，并确定管理者是否可采取行动降低珊瑚对此类疾病的易感性（Maynard等人，审稿中）。

本数据集以图像形式呈现，无单位。分辨率约为1公里的像素被标记为红色，这些像素所在区域的升温速率至少与2002年末大堡礁南部白化综合征爆发区域的升温速率相当。

本数据集是MTSRF项目的一部分。

引用本数据集：Maynard J.、Willis B.（2009）《预测澳大利亚北部珊瑚疾病白化综合征的爆发》，e-Atlas，http://eatlas.org.au/data/uuid/eaece897-3e9a-47ea-94cb-ee94195dac98