Expected Labor Force Activity and Retirement Behavior by Age, Gender, and Labor Force History

We find and estimate probability mass functions for labor force related random variables. Complete life expectancy (by age, gender, and two years of labor force history) is decomposed into expected years of future labor force activity and inactivity as well as into expected years until final separation from the labor force and expected years in retirement. We also calculate expected age at retirement and expected years in retirement for people who actually retire. Two consecutive years of inactivity, especially in middle age, is a key indicator for both men and women when accounting for future labor force participation and retirement. For example, women (men) who are out of the labor force at age 49 and again out of the labor force at age 50, can expect to be in the labor force seven (eight) fewer years in the future than their counterparts who were in the labor force at ages 49 and 50. In addition, they have expected retirement ages 4.5–5.5 years younger than their active counterparts.

本研究针对劳动力相关随机变量，构建并估计其概率质量函数（probability mass function）。我们依据年龄、性别以及两年劳动力市场经历，将完整预期寿命分解为未来劳动力参与与脱离的预期年限，同时分解为最终脱离劳动力市场前的预期年限与退休后的预期年限。此外，我们还针对实际退休人群，计算了其预期退休年龄与退休后预期年限。连续两年脱离劳动力市场，尤其在中年阶段，是预测男性与女性未来劳动力参与及退休情况的关键指标。例如，49岁与50岁均脱离劳动力市场的女性（男性），相较于49岁与50岁均参与劳动力市场的同类人群，其未来预期劳动力参与年限将较后者少7年（8年）。此外，该群体的预期退休年龄较持续参与劳动力市场的同类人群早4.5至5.5年。