Quantifying global drivers of zoonotic bat viruses: a process-based perspective

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), particularly zoonoses, represent a significant threat to global health. Emergence is often driven by anthropogenic activity (e.g. travel, land use change). Although disease emergence frameworks suggest multiple steps from initial zoonotic transmission to human-to-human spread, there have been few attempts to empirically model specific steps. We create a process-basedframework to separate out components of individual emergence steps. We focus on early emergence and expand the first step, zoonotic transmission, into processes of generation of pathogen richness, transmission opportunity and establishment, each with their own hypothesised drivers. Using this structure, we build a spatial empirical model of these drivers, taking bat viruses shared with humans as a case study. We show that drivers of both pathogen richness (host diversity and climatic variability) and transmission opportunity (human population density, bushmeat hunting and livestock produc...

新发传染病（Emerging infectious diseases, EIDs），尤其是人兽共患病（zoonoses），对全球健康构成重大威胁。疾病的出现往往由人为活动（anthropogenic activity）驱动（例如旅行、土地利用变化）。尽管疾病出现框架（disease emergence frameworks）指出从初始人兽共患病传播（zoonotic transmission）到人际传播需经历多个步骤，但鲜有尝试对具体步骤进行实证建模。我们构建了一个基于过程的框架（process-based framework），以分离单个出现步骤的组成部分。我们聚焦于早期出现阶段，并将第一步（人兽共患病传播）扩展为病原体丰富度（pathogen richness）的产生、传播机会（transmission opportunity）及定殖（establishment）等过程，每个过程均有其假设的驱动因素。利用这一结构，我们建立了这些驱动因素的空间实证模型（spatial empirical model），以与人类共有的蝙蝠病毒作为案例研究。我们发现，病原体丰富度的驱动因素（宿主多样性（host diversity）和气候变异性（climatic variability））及传播机会的驱动因素（人口密度、野味狩猎（bushmeat hunting）和畜牧业生产...