Putting brakes on Expedition Cruise Tourism in Svalbard: exercising power at the expense of legitimacy?

Ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by multiple stressors caused by climate and environmental changes, increased pollution and human activities. The changes are unprecedented, with considerable scientific uncertainties over their potential consequences. In such a situation the use of the precautionary principle can be justified in environmental management. The principle is still contested, and its implementation needs careful considerations to be experienced as legitimate. This article will use the new regulatory amendments in Svalbard as a case to examine what preconditions must be in place to maintain legitimacy in environmental policy making when the precautionary principle is being applied. Based on a compilation of ship positional data, we assess the spatio-temporal distribution of cruise ships in Svalbard from 2011 to 2022 and the potential impacts on selected species. We then discuss the legitimacy of the regulatory amendments and the application of the precautionary principle. Our results show significant growth in the amount, distribution, and mileage of expedition cruise vessels' length of travel. While a precautionary approach to management is wise in a situation in which more stressors than ever are threatening Arctic wildlife, a more transparent and inclusive regulatory process would have strengthened the legitimacy of regulations and reduced conflict.

北极生态系统正受到气候与环境变化、污染加剧及人类活动所引发的多重压力源的影响。这些变化是前所未有的，其潜在后果存在显著的科学不确定性。在此情形下，在环境管理中运用预防原则（precautionary principle）具有合理性。该原则仍存在争议，其实施需经过审慎考量方可被视为具有合法性。本文将以斯瓦尔巴德（Svalbard）的新监管修正案为案例，探讨在应用预防原则时，环境决策制定需具备哪些前提条件才能维持合法性。基于船舶位置数据的汇编，我们评估了2011年至2022年期间斯瓦尔巴德游轮的时空分布及其对选定物种的潜在影响。随后，我们讨论了监管修正案的合法性及预防原则的应用。研究结果显示，探险游轮的数量、分布范围及航行里程均呈现显著增长。尽管在北极野生动物面临比以往更多压力源威胁的情况下，采用预防性管理方法是明智之举，但更透明且包容的监管过程将增强法规的合法性并减少冲突。