Estimated results of robustness test.

Given the multitude of risks and challenges faced by the water ecological environment during urbanization, enhancing water ecological resilience and improving the water ecological environment have emerged as crucial topics in China’s economic and social development, as well as its ecological civilization construction. This study proposes a research hypothesis on the relationship between new urbanization and water ecological resilience. Employing various econometric models such as the extended STIRPAT model, dynamic panel model, panel threshold effect model, dynamic panel mediating effect model and dynamic panel difference-in-difference model, empirical tests were conducted to examine the impact of new urbanization on water ecological resilience in central China. The findings indicate that: (1) there exists a U-shaped curve relationship with a threshold effect between new urbanization and water ecological resilience; this conclusion remains valid even after conducting several robustness tests including extreme value treatment, re-measurement of independent variables, and replacement of econometric models. (2) In regions with lower levels of new urbanization, new urbanization exerts more significant stress effect on water ecological resilience through economic scale effect, population scale effect, investment pulling effect and foreign trade effect; whereas in regions with higher levels of new urbanization, new urbanization exerts more significant positive effect on water ecological resilience through factors agglomeration effect, technological progress effect, human capital effect, industrial structure effect and marketization effect. (3) Compared to non-pilot cities, the implementation of comprehensive pilot policies for new urbanization has significantly improved the water ecological resilience of cities in central China and the promotion of new urbanization of pilot cities contributes to enhancing water ecological resilience.伴随城镇化进程，水生态环境面临诸多风险与挑战，提升水生态韧性、改善水生态环境已成为中国经济社会发展与生态文明建设的核心议题。本研究针对新型城镇化与水生态韧性的关联关系提出研究假说。本研究采用拓展型STIRPAT模型（STIRPAT）、动态面板模型、面板门槛效应模型、动态面板中介效应模型以及动态面板双重差分模型等多种计量经济学模型，对中国中部地区新型城镇化对水生态韧性的影响开展实证检验。研究结果显示：（1）新型城镇化与水生态韧性之间存在具有门槛效应的U型曲线关系；该结论在经过极值处理、自变量重新测度、替换计量模型等多项稳健性检验后依然成立。（2）在新型城镇化水平较低的地区，新型城镇化通过经济规模效应、人口规模效应、投资拉动效应与外贸效应对水生态韧性产生更为显著的压力效应；而在新型城镇化水平较高的地区，新型城镇化则通过要素集聚效应、技术进步效应、人力资本效应、产业结构效应与市场化效应对水生态韧性产生更为显著的正向效应。（3）相较于非试点城市，新型城镇化综合试点政策的实施显著提升了中国中部地区城市的水生态韧性，且试点城市的新型城镇化建设有助于进一步增强水生态韧性。