Climate variability indicators - scientific data versus farmers perception; evidence from southern Ghana

Even though copious knowledge has been advanced in the extant literature on climate variability and change. Two schools of thought exist—one that views farmers’ perceptions of climate indicators as erroneous and inferior, while the other views, scientific data, specifically meteorological data, to be superior and accurate. The accuracy of farmers perception of climate variability indicators is in doubt relative to the scientific data. This article targets assessing farmers perception of climate variability indicators compared to the scientific data with an eye to distil policy implications for climate variability resilience and adaptation. Using cross-sectional data on 197 smallholder maize farmers in southern Ghana, the article answers the research question: To what extent do smallholder farmers perception of climate variability indicators align or vary from objective climate data? We find variation between farmers perception of climate indicators and the objective data from the Ghana Meteorological Agency. Specifically, while farmer perceptions showed a decrease in rainfall over the past 10 years (2009–2018), the objective data proved otherwise. Again, a contradiction existed between farmers perception of sunshine and the scientific data. However, farmers’ perceptions of temperature aligned with the objective data. The scientific data established coefficient of variations of 0.21, 0.04, 0.03, and 0.12 for rainfall, sunshine, maximum, and minimum temperatures respectively. We recommend collaborative efforts between the national research council’s, Ghana Meteorological Agency, and academic institutions to commission further studies that will test, confirm, and harmonize the reliability of smallholder perceptions of climate variability and change in climate adaptation efforts.

尽管现有关于气候变率与气候变化的研究文献已积累了丰硕的研究成果。当前存在两种学术观点：一派认为农户对气候指标的认知存在谬误且可信度不足，另一派则认为科学数据（尤其是气象数据）更具优越性与准确性。相较于科学数据，农户对气候变率指标的认知准确性仍存疑。本文旨在对比评估农户对气候变率指标的认知与科学数据，并借此提炼气候变率韧性提升与气候适应的政策启示。
本文采用加纳南部197户玉米种植小农户的横截面数据，回答了如下研究问题：小农户对气候变率指标的认知，与客观气候数据的契合程度及差异范围如何？
研究发现，农户对气候指标的认知与加纳气象服务局（Ghana Meteorological Agency）的客观数据之间存在差异。具体而言，农户认为2009-2018年这过去10年间降雨量有所减少，但客观数据却呈现相反趋势。此外，农户对日照时长的认知与科学数据也存在矛盾。不过，农户对气温的认知与客观数据保持一致。科学数据显示，降雨量、日照时长、最高气温与最低气温的变异系数分别为0.21、0.04、0.03与0.12。
本文建议国家研究理事会、加纳气象服务局与学术机构开展协作，进一步开展相关研究，以验证、确认并协调小农户对气候变率与变化的认知可靠性，将其纳入气候适应工作体系。