Predicting mosquito density and distribution in China under climate change

In light of the impending consequences of climate change, there is a strong probability that the geographical distribution of mosquitoes will undergo substantial modification. Consequently, the potential environmental health risks posed by mosquitoes as a harmful invasive species remain uncertain. The present study primarily employs species distribution models to simulate the distribution of mosquitoes in China. However, the majority of extant studies focus on annual changes rather than seasonal or monthly changes. Meteorological parameters are predominantly temperature and precipitation, while other factors, such as humidity and wind speed are neglected. Furthermore, the existing monitoring records primarily focus on the presence or absence of specific mosquito species, neglecting to account for density fluctuations. In this study, we propose to use a random forest model to simulate the monthly density and distribution of mosquitoes in China during the first (2030), middle (2050), late (2070), and last (2090) years of this century. The primary dominant mosquito species involved were Anopheles sinensis, Culex tritaeniorhynchus, and Aedes albopictus, and four climate change scenarios, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585, were simulated. The findings of this study serve to enhance our comprehension of the ecological principles governing mosquito populations, thereby providing a scientific foundation for informed decision-making within the public health sector. This knowledge facilitates a strategic transition from a reactive response to a proactive approach, focusing on prevention and control. This shift is of paramount importance in ensuring the security of public health.

鉴于气候变化迫在眉睫的影响，蚊虫的地理分布极有可能发生显著改变。因此，蚊虫作为有害入侵物种所带来的潜在环境健康风险仍不明朗。本研究主要采用物种分布模型（species distribution models）模拟中国境内蚊虫的分布情况，但当前绝大多数已有研究仅关注年度变化，而非季节或月度维度的变化；现有研究的气象参数多以气温和降水为主，却忽略了湿度、风速等其他关键因素。此外，现存的监测记录多仅聚焦特定蚊虫物种的存在与否，未考虑种群密度的波动情况。本研究拟采用随机森林模型（random forest model），模拟本世纪初期（2030年）、中期（2050年）、后期（2070年）及末期（2090年）中国境内蚊虫的月度密度与分布格局，所涵盖的主要优势蚊虫物种包括中华按蚊（Anopheles sinensis）、三带喙库蚊（Culex tritaeniorhynchus）以及白纹伊蚊（Aedes albopictus），并模拟了共享社会经济路径（Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSP）126、SSP245、SSP370及SSP585共4种气候变化情景。本研究结果有助于加深我们对蚊虫种群生态规律的理解，从而为公共卫生领域的科学决策提供坚实的理论基础；此类认知可推动公共卫生策略从被动应对向主动防控转型，聚焦预防与治理环节，这一转型对于保障公共卫生安全至关重要。