Liberal Displacement Policies Attract Forced Migrants in the Global South

Most forced migrants around the world are displaced within the Global South. We study whether and how de jure policies on forced displacement affect where forced migrants flee in the developing world. Recent evidence from the Global North suggests migrants gravitate toward liberal policy environments. However, existing analyses expect de jure policies to have little effect in the developing world, given strong presumptions that policy enforcement is poor and policy knowledge is low. Using original data on de jure displacement policies for 92 developing countries, and interviews with 126 refugees and policymakers, we document a robust association between liberal de jure policies and forced migrant flows. Gravitation toward liberal environments is conditional on factors that facilitate the diffusion of policy knowledge, such as transnational ethnic kin. Policies for free movement, services, and livelihoods are especially attractive. Utility-maximizing models of migrant decisionmaking must take de jure policy provisions into account.

全球范围内的大多数被迫移民均在全球南方（Global South）内部流离失所。本研究旨在探究发展中国家关于被迫流离失所的法定政策（de jure policies）是否以及如何影响被迫移民的逃亡目的地选择。来自全球北方（Global North）的近期证据表明，移民倾向于涌向政策环境更自由的地区。然而，现有分析认为，鉴于发展中国家普遍存在政策执行不力与政策认知度低的预设，法定政策对其影响甚微。通过使用覆盖92个发展中国家的法定流离失所政策原始数据，以及对126名难民与政策制定者的访谈，我们发现自由派法定政策与被迫移民流动之间存在显著关联。移民向自由环境的倾向取决于有助于政策知识传播的因素，例如跨国族裔亲属网络。涉及自由流动、公共服务与生计保障的政策尤其具有吸引力。移民决策的效用最大化模型必须将法定政策条款纳入考量。