Trading Blows: A Social Network of WTO Trade Disputes, 1995-2020

This study examines the structure of WTO trade disputes (1995–2020) using social network analysis. We argue that disputes form a broader network shaped by structural dependencies. We identify four key features: (1) sociality—countries that initiate disputes tend to continue doing so; (2) popularity—frequently targeted states remain vulnerable; (3) reciprocity—states retaliate against accusers; and (4) triadic dependencies—states ally based on common rivalries. Using an Additive and Multiplicative Effects (AME) model, we confirm that social dynamics, rather than country characteristics such as economic size alone, drive the initiation of disputes. Our findings highlight how WTO enforcement mechanisms produce a microcosm of social dynamics. Recent geopolitical shifts, such as the US blocking WTO appellate judges, suggest future challenges for trade governance.

本研究采用社会网络分析（social network analysis）方法，考察了1995年至2020年间世界贸易组织（WTO）贸易争端的结构特征。本研究认为，贸易争端构成了一个由结构性依赖塑造的更广泛网络。本研究识别出四大核心特征：（1）社交性：主动发起争端的国家往往会持续采取争端发起行为；（2）受针对性：频繁成为争端目标的国家始终处于易受攻击的状态；（3）互惠性：国家会对指控己方的对手实施报复；（4）三元依赖：国家会基于共同的敌对关系结成同盟。本研究采用加乘效应（Additive and Multiplicative Effects, AME）模型，证实了社交动态而非仅国家自身特征（如经济规模）推动了争端的发起。本研究结果揭示了世界贸易组织的执行机制如何催生了社交动态的缩影。近期的地缘政治变动——例如美国阻挠世界贸易组织上诉机构法官的任命——预示着贸易治理未来将面临诸多挑战。