Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Feeder Cattle Prices in Northeast Texas

This study estimates how COVID has affected feeder cattle prices in Northeast Texas for the period 2019-2021. The study examines preconditioned cattle, which seem to be a less-risky and better-suiting market to some feedlots. The study evaluates two models, a separate means ANOVA model and a multiple regression model, and uses sales auction data for the months of September from the North East Texas Beef Improvement Organization at the Sulphur Springs Livestock Auction in Sulphur Springs, Texas. A total of 447 lots encompassing 14,941 heads were analyzed to determine the effects of COVID-19 on feeder cattle prices. The study found price differences in preconditioned feeder cattle among various COVID stages. The September 2021 and the September 2020 auction prices were higher and statistically different from the September 2019 auction by $10.28/cwt and $7.09/cwt respectively, regardless of weight, average, and sex. In addition, several interaction variables as well as variables such as average weight, heifers, and year were statistically significant. This study assists feeder cattle producers, beef organizations, ranchers, and feedlots in the area in assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

本研究旨在估算2019-2021年期间COVID-19对得克萨斯州东北部架子牛价格的影响。研究考察了预调理牛，这类牛对部分育肥场而言风险较低且更适配市场需求。研究评估了两种模型——独立均值方差分析（ANOVA）模型与多元回归模型，并使用了得克萨斯州萨瑟普斯普林斯市萨瑟普林斯牲畜拍卖市场中东北得克萨斯牛肉改良组织提供的2019-2021年9月销售拍卖数据。研究共分析了447批次（涵盖14941头牛）的数据，以确定COVID-19对架子牛价格的影响。

研究发现，在COVID-19的不同阶段，预调理架子牛的价格存在差异。无论体重、平均指标及性别如何，2021年9月和2020年9月的拍卖价格均显著高于2019年9月，差额分别为每英担10.28美元和7.09美元，且差异具有统计学意义。此外，若干交互变量以及平均体重、小母牛、年份等变量均具有统计学显著性。本研究可为该地区的架子牛生产者、牛肉组织、牧场主及育肥场评估COVID-19疫情的影响提供参考。