Tracing Process-Related Carbon Emissions and Associated Utilizable Exhausts in China

With global efforts toward sustainable development, there has been a growing focus on the utilization of CO2-centered exhaust gases. However, the majority of the current research only considers single component and dissatisfies the requirements of real-world production. Here, we report a quantitative framework to analyze the historical evolution and future prospects of utilizable CO2-centered exhaust gas, considering various industrial decarbonization strategies for future projections. Taking China as an example, this study redefined the emission accounting boundaries with the perspective of resource utilization and actual production, including process-related and associated energy-related carbon emissions and associated CO and H2. The production and emission databases of 15 industries among 31 provinces during 2000–2060 and the dynamic databases of emission coefficients and technology adoption rates were constructed. The results show that China has huge potential for exhaust gas utilization, which will be influenced by future industrial decarbonization strategies. The regional distribution of utilizable exhaust gases generally follows a westward migration trend. The evolutionary trends, driving factors, impacts of strategic choices, and regional distributions vary across industries, offering critical insights for the future deployment of exhaust gas utilization technologies.

随着全球可持续发展进程的持续推进，以二氧化碳（CO₂）为核心的废气资源化利用愈发受到关注。然而当前绝大多数相关研究仅针对单一组分开展，无法满足实际生产的应用需求。为此，本研究构建了一套量化分析框架，在未来预测中纳入各类工业脱碳策略，用以分析可资源化利用的以二氧化碳为核心的废气的历史演变与发展前景。本研究以中国为案例，从资源利用与实际生产的视角重新界定了排放核算边界，涵盖过程关联碳排放、配套能源环节碳排放，以及伴随产生的一氧化碳（CO）与氢气（H₂）。本研究构建了2000—2060年中国31个省份15个行业的生产与排放数据库，以及排放系数、技术采用率动态数据库。研究结果表明，中国废气资源化利用潜力巨大，且该潜力将受到未来工业脱碳策略的影响。可资源化利用废气的区域分布整体呈现西迁趋势。不同行业的演化趋势、驱动因子、战略选择的影响效应以及区域分布均存在差异，可为废气资源化利用技术的未来布局提供关键决策参考。