Modeling to determine when to re-open HIV services during COVID-19 pandemic

The Risks and Benefits of Providing HIV Services during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread disruptions including to health services. In the early response to the pandemic many countries restricted population movements and some health services were suspended or limited. In late 2020 and early 2021 some countries re-imposed restrictions. Health authorities need to balance the potential harms of additional SARS-CoV-2 transmission due to contacts associated with health services against the benefits of those services, including fewer new HIV infections and deaths. This paper examines these trade-offs for select HIV services. 

Methods

We used four HIV simulation models (Goals, HIV Synthesis, Optima HIV and EMOD) to estimate the benefits of continuing HIV services in terms of fewer new HIV infections and deaths. We used three COVID-19 transmission models (Covasim, Cooper/Smith and a simple contact model) to estimate the additional deaths ...

COVID-19大流行期间提供HIV服务的风险与收益

引言
COVID-19大流行已造成广泛的服务中断，其中包括医疗服务。在大流行的早期应对阶段，许多国家限制了人口流动，部分医疗服务被暂停或缩减。2020年末至2021年初，一些国家重新实施了限制措施。卫生当局需要平衡两方面的因素：一是医疗服务相关接触可能导致的SARS-CoV-2额外传播所带来的潜在危害，二是这些服务的收益（包括减少新HIV感染病例和死亡人数）。本文探讨了特定HIV服务的这些权衡（trade-offs）。

方法
我们使用四个HIV模拟模型（Goals、HIV Synthesis、Optima HIV和EMOD）来估算继续提供HIV服务在减少新HIV感染和死亡方面的收益。我们采用三个COVID-19传播模型（Covasim、Cooper/Smith及一个简单接触模型）来估计额外死亡...