Total additional infections, hospitalisations, and deaths averted, and total additional vaccine doses delivered for the Category 1 and 3 settings.

We assume the mRNA-1273 vaccine is implemented for the first 2 doses and the first booster (dose 3), and a variant-adapted vaccine for subsequent booster doses with no additional changes to the vaccine product (i.e., no further updating). Impact is expressed relative to the scenario where the primary series plus a booster is delivered to the 10+ years population, with no additional doses. Totals are shown for the period from 1 July 2022 to 31 December 2024. Unless otherwise specified, we assume no additional variant emergence beyond Omicron and its subtypes. The “new variant worse-case scenario” refers to a scenario where a new variant replaces Omicron over 1 month, starting 1 October 2023, with VFR = 10 relative to Delta and severity similar to Delta. Values are the median estimate across 50 model simulations for each scenario. Total modelled events for each scenario are in S1 Table S6.

本研究假设，前2剂疫苗接种及首剂加强针（第3剂）均采用mRNA-1273疫苗，后续加强针则更换为变异株适配疫苗，且疫苗产品无额外调整（即不再进行后续更新）。本研究的效应值均以基准场景为参照进行计算：该基准场景为仅向10岁及以上人群接种基础免疫程序加1剂加强针，无额外追加接种剂量。统计周期为2022年7月1日至2024年12月31日，所有结果均为该周期内的汇总数据。除非另有说明，本研究假设除奥密克戎（Omicron）及其亚型外，无其他新型变异株出现。"新型变异株最坏场景"指的是2023年10月1日起，1个月内新型变异株取代奥密克戎的场景，该变异株相对于德尔塔（Delta）的病毒复制因子（Viral Fitness Ratio, VFR）为10，且致病严重程度与德尔塔相当。所有结果值均为各场景下50次模型模拟的中位数估计值。各场景下模拟事件的汇总数据详见S1表S6。