Large-Scale Modelling of the Environmentally-Driven Population Dynamics of Temperate Aedes albopictus (Skuse)

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

白纹伊蚊（Aedes albopictus），俗称亚洲虎蚊，是一种极具入侵性的媒介物种。它已被证实可传播登革热与基孔肯雅热病毒，且理论上还具备携带另外24种虫媒病毒的潜力。近年来，该物种的地理分布范围持续扩张，对中东、地中海沿岸、欧洲以及北美诸多国家构成威胁。本研究通过构建环境驱动的种群动态数学模型，探究了其分布扩张的理论限制因素。我们聚焦于白纹伊蚊的温带品系，整合构建了一套基于文献的全面生理参数数据库。作为一项创新性研究方法，我们通过对所有参数进行推断，将其种群动态与全球可获取的环境数据集相关联。本研究采用贝叶斯方法，以实验数据作为先验知识，并以意大利艾米利亚-罗马涅大区的监测数据集作为证据来源。该模型将温度、降水量、人口密度以及光周期作为主要环境驱动因子，此外还纳入了滞育机制与简化的滋生地模型。模型在参考区域及其他区域均展现出优异的预测性能，验证了欧洲多数现有关于该媒介物种存在的相关报道。从模型中推导得出的核心假说之一为：白纹伊蚊种群可通过特定机制在严寒冬季条件下存活。受环境数据集约束的模型表明，滞育卵或成蚊媒介需具备增强的耐寒性。该模型还提示，温度与光周期可差异化调控滞育的启动与终止过程。我们证实，通过纳入未观测属性与约束条件（例如实验室与野外条件间的差异），可对白纹伊蚊种群的环境依赖性得出可靠的推断结论。