Estimated result of probit model.

Universities play a crucial role in urban economic and structural development. The government of Bangladesh has undertaken the initiative to establish a public university in each of the 64 districts. These newly founded universities have the potential to impact urban growth significantly. We aimed to project university-induced urban expansion to address this knowledge gap and identify the mechanisms driving urban growth. The classification of supervised and unsupervised methods was employed to analyze urban development for the years 2000, 2010, 2016, and 2022. We used the Cellular Automata and Markov Chain approach to forecast future urban growth and land transition capacity. Additionally, the driving factors and selection of the study area were derived from Focus Group Discussions (FGD), Key Informant Interviews (KII), Probit Model, and Perception Index (PI). The findings of this study reveal a 1.6% urban growth rate within ten years of the establishment of the university, while urban expansion accelerated to 29.78% after ten years. The predictions also indicate a sustained urban growth rate of 4.7% by 2042. Furthermore, the PI index demonstrates that the establishment of the university has resulted in high demand for rental housing, serving as one of the primary drivers of urban expansion. Moreover, the Probit model highlights strong economic capability, proximity to the town, railway station, hospital, and easy access to credit as vital facilitators behind the drivers of urban expansion. Policymakers, the scientific community, and urban planners can benefit from this study in pursuing sustainable city development through university establishment.

高等院校对城市经济与结构发展具有至关重要的作用。孟加拉国政府已启动一项计划，将在全国64个行政区各设立一所公立大学。此类新建公立大学有望对城市增长产生显著影响。本研究旨在模拟大学建设引致的城市扩张，以填补相关研究空白，并厘清驱动城市增长的内在机制。研究采用监督与非监督分类方法，对2000年、2010年、2016年及2022年的城市发展状况进行分析。本研究运用元胞自动机（Cellular Automata）与马尔可夫链（Markov Chain）模型，对未来城市增长与土地转移承载力展开预测。此外，本研究的驱动因子选取与研究区域划定，均基于焦点小组讨论（Focus Group Discussions, FGD）、关键知情人访谈（Key Informant Interviews, KII）、概率单位模型（Probit Model）与感知指数（Perception Index, PI）开展。研究结果显示，大学设立后的十年间，城市增长率达1.6%；而在设立满十年后，城市扩张速度进一步加快至29.78%。预测结果同时表明，至2042年，城市将维持4.7%的年均增长率。此外，感知指数（PI）结果显示，大学设立催生了旺盛的租赁住房需求，这亦是推动城市扩张的核心动因之一。概率单位模型（Probit Model）进一步揭示，较强的经济实力、临近城镇与火车站、医院的区位条件，以及便捷的信贷获取渠道，均为城市扩张驱动因子背后的关键助推因素。本研究可为政策制定者、科研学界与城市规划者提供参考，助力其通过高校设立推进城市可持续发展。