Table_1_Geographic Distribution of Colombian Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) via Ecological Niche Modeling: A Prediction for the Main Tropical Forages' Pest in the Neotropics.XLSX

Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are the main tropical pests in Central and South America of cultivated pastures. We aimed to estimate the potential distribution of Aeneolamia varia, A. lepidior, A. reducta, Prosapia simulans, Zulia carbonaria, and Z. pubescens throughout the Neotropics using ecological niche modeling. These six insect species are common in Colombia and cause large economic losses. Records of these species, prior to the year 2000, were compiled from human observations, specimens from CIAT Arthropod Reference Collection (CIATARC), Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), speciesLink (splink), and an extensive literature review. Different ecological niche models (ENMs) were generated for each species: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), generalized linear (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and random forest model (RF). Bioclimatic datasets were obtained from WorldClim and the 19 available variables were used as predictors. Future changes in the potential geographical distribution were simulated in ENMs generated based on climate change projections for 2050 in two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The results suggest that (i) Colombian spittlebugs impose an important threat to Urochloa production in different South American countries, (ii) each spittlebug species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, (iii) in the future the six species are likely to invade new geographic areas even in an optimistic scenario, (iv) A. lepidior and A. reducta showed a higher number of suitable habitats across Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador, where predicted risk is more severe. Our data will allow to (i) monitor the dispersion of these spittlebug species, (ii) design strategies for integrated spittlebug management that include resistant cultivars adoption to mitigate potential economic damage, and (iii) implement regulatory actions to prevent their introduction and spread in geographic areas where the species are not yet found.

半翅目（Hemiptera）尖胸沫蝉科（Cercopidae）的沫蝉是中南美洲栽培牧场的主要热带害虫。本研究旨在通过生态位模型（ecological niche modeling, ENM），预测新热带界内6种沫蝉——*Aeneolamia varia*、*A. lepidior*、*A. reducta*、*Prosapia simulans*、*Zulia carbonaria*及*Z. pubescens*的潜在分布范围。这6种昆虫在哥伦比亚分布广泛，且会造成严重的经济损失。本研究收集了2000年之前的上述物种记录，数据来源包括人工观测记录、CIAT节肢动物参考馆藏标本（CIAT Arthropod Reference Collection, CIATARC）、全球生物多样性信息设施（Global Biodiversity Information Facility, GBIF）、speciesLink（splink）以及大量文献综述。本研究为每个物种构建了不同的生态位模型（ENMs），包括最大熵模型（Maximum Entropy, MaxEnt）、广义线性模型（generalized linear, GLM）、多元自适应回归样条模型（multivariate adaptive regression spline, MARS）以及随机森林模型（random forest model, RF）。生物气候数据集取自WorldClim，选取其中19个变量作为模型预测因子。基于2050年气候变化的两种情景（乐观情景与悲观情景）的预测结果，本研究通过构建的生态位模型模拟了上述物种潜在地理分布的未来变化。研究结果显示：(1) 哥伦比亚沫蝉对多个南美国家的臂形草属（Urochloa）牧草生产构成了严重威胁；(2) 每种沫蝉均具有独特的地理分布格局；(3) 即便在乐观气候变化情景下，这6种沫蝉未来仍有可能扩张至新的地理区域；(4) *A. lepidior*与*A. reducta*在哥伦比亚、委内瑞拉、巴西、秘鲁及厄瓜多尔境内拥有更多的适宜生境，其潜在危害风险也更为严峻。本研究数据集可用于：(1) 监测这些沫蝉物种的扩散情况；(2) 制定沫蝉综合防控策略，包括推广种植抗虫品种以减轻潜在的经济损失；(3) 实施监管措施，防止上述物种在尚未发现它们的地理区域内被传入和扩散。