Data from: Climate change amplifies plant invasion hotspots in Nepal

Aim Climate change has increased the risk of biological invasions,
particularly by increasing the climatically suitable regions for invasive
alien species. The distribution of many native and invasive species has
been predicted to change under future climate. We performed species
distribution modelling of invasive alien plants (IAPs) to identify
hotspots under current and future climate scenarios in Nepal, a country
ranked among the most vulnerable countries to biological invasions and
climate change in the world. Location Nepal Methods We predicted
climatically suitable niches of 24 out of the total 26 reported IAPs in
Nepal under current and future climate (2050 for RCP 6.0) using an
ensemble of species distribution models. We also conducted hotspot
analysis to highlight the geographic hotspots for IAPs in different
climatic zones, land cover, ecoregions, physiography, and federal states.
Results Under future climate, climatically suitable regions for 75% of
IAPs will expand in contrast to a contraction of the climatically suitable
regions for the remaining 25% of the IAPs. A high proportion of the
modelled suitable niches of IAPs occurred on agricultural lands followed
by forests. In aggregation, both extent and intensity (invasion hotspots)
of the climatically suitable regions for IAPs will increase in Nepal under
future climate scenarios. The invasion hotspots will expand towards the
high-elevation mountainous regions. In these regions, land use is rapidly
transforming due to the development of infrastructure and expansion of
tourism and trade. Main conclusions Negative impacts on livelihood,
biodiversity, and ecosystem services, as well as economic loss caused by
IAPs in the future, may be amplified if preventive and control measures
are not immediately initiated. Therefore, the management of IAPs in Nepal
should account for the vulnerability of climate change-induced biological
invasions into new areas, primarily in the mountains.

研究目的 气候变化加剧了生物入侵风险，尤其是通过扩大入侵外来物种的气候适宜区域。据预测，未来气候条件下许多本地物种和入侵物种的分布将发生变化。我们对尼泊尔的入侵外来植物（Invasive Alien Plants, IAPs）进行了物种分布建模，以识别当前及未来气候情景下的入侵热点区域——尼泊尔是全球生物入侵和气候变化最脆弱的国家之一。

研究区域 尼泊尔

研究方法 我们采用物种分布模型集成方法，预测了尼泊尔已报道的26种IAPs中24种在当前及未来气候（2050年，RCP 6.0情景）下的气候适宜生态位。

研究结果 未来气候条件下，75%的IAPs气候适宜区域将扩大，而剩余25%的IAPs适宜区域则会收缩。模型预测的IAPs适宜生态位中，大部分分布于农业用地，其次是森林。总体而言，未来气候情景下尼泊尔IAPs的气候适宜区域范围和强度（入侵热点）均会增加，且入侵热点将向高海拔山区扩展。这些区域因基础设施建设、旅游业及贸易扩张，土地利用正发生快速转变。

主要结论 若不立即采取防控措施，未来IAPs对生计、生物多样性、生态系统服务的负面影响及造成的经济损失可能会加剧。因此，尼泊尔的IAPs管理应考虑气候变化导致生物入侵向新区域（主要是山区）扩散的脆弱性。