Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of bacillary dysentery in Guangzhou, Southern China

Introduction The control of bacillary dysentery (BD) remains a big challenge for China. Methods Negative binomial multivariable regression was used to study relationships between meteorological variables and the occurrence of BD during the period of 2006-2012. Results Each 1°C rise of temperature corresponded to an increase of 3.60% (95%CI, 3.03% to 4.18%) in the monthly number of BD cases, whereas a 1 hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of BD cases by 2.85% (95%CI = 3.34% to 2.37% decrease). Conclusions Temperature and atmospheric pressure may be considered as predictors for the occurrence of BD in Guangzhou.

引言 细菌性痢疾（bacillary dysentery, BD）的防控仍是我国面临的重大公共卫生挑战。方法 本研究采用负二项多变量回归模型，探讨2006-2012年气象变量与细菌性痢疾发病情况之间的关联。结果 气温每升高1℃，月度细菌性痢疾病例数增加3.60%（95%置信区间：3.03%~4.18%）；大气气压每升高1百帕（hPa），病例数减少2.85%，其95%置信区间为2.37%~3.34%的降幅。结论 气温与大气气压可作为广州市细菌性痢疾发病的预测因子。