Public Spending Efficiency determinants New evidence using Simar and Wilson two-stage efficiency analysis

Data from 147 countries for the years 2010 and 2022 gathered from various sources, allow the calculation of public spending performance (PSP) on the basis of opportunity and Musgravian indicators. Public spending Efficiency (PSE) scores are then derived using Data Envelopment Analysis using the level of public spending (as % of GDP) as input and PSP as output. Simar and Wilson (2007) approach is finally employed to analyze the determinants of public spending (in)efficiency using a host of environmental variables. The results indicate that inefficiency averages 31% in 2010 and 28% in 2022, meaning that countries have reduced inefficiency by 3% over the period, mainly by middle-income countries, and could reduce it further. Economic complexity, financial development and trade openness are shown to be powerful efficiency enhancers, in contrast to natural resources rents. The benefits of private investment are inconclusive, while debt and FDI inflows are insignificant, indicating the complexity of the relationship between these factors and PSE, and highlighting the need for targeted development projects, better regulatory frameworks, and accountability mechanisms to reap their benefits.

本数据集涵盖2010年和2022年来自147个国家的多源数据，可基于机会指标与马斯格雷夫指标（Musgravian indicators）计算公共支出绩效（public spending performance, PSP）。随后，以公共支出水平（占GDP百分比）为投入、PSP为产出，通过数据包络分析（Data Envelopment Analysis）得到公共支出效率（public spending Efficiency, PSE）得分。最后，采用Simar与Wilson（2007）的方法，结合一系列环境变量分析公共支出（非）效率的影响因素。结果显示，2010年非效率平均为31%，2022年降至28%——这意味着该时期内各国（主要是中等收入国家）的非效率水平下降了3%，且仍有进一步降低的空间。研究表明，经济复杂度、金融发展与贸易开放度是提升效率的重要因素，而自然资源租金则相反。私人投资的效益尚无定论；债务与外商直接投资流入的影响不显著，这既体现了这些因素与PSE关系的复杂性，也凸显了通过针对性发展项目、更完善的监管框架及问责机制来挖掘其潜在效益的必要性。