Data for: Conditional cash transfers, civil conflict and insurgent influence: Experimental evidence from the Philippines

Abstract of associated article: Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are an increasingly popular tool for reducing poverty in conflict-affected areas. Despite their growing popularity, there is limited evidence on how CCT programs affect conflict and theoretical predictions are ambiguous. We estimate the effect of conditional cash transfers on civil conflict in the Philippines by exploiting an experiment that randomly assigned eligibility for a CCT program at the village level. We find that cash transfers caused a substantial decrease in conflict-related incidents in treatment villages relative to control villages in the first 9months of the program. Using unique data on local insurgent influence, we also find that the program reduced insurgent influence in treated villages. An analysis of possible spillovers yields inconclusive results. While we find no statistical evidence of spillovers, we also cannot rule out that the village-level effect was due to displacement of insurgent activity from treatment to control villages.

关联文章摘要：有条件现金转移支付（Conditional Cash Transfer）项目在受冲突影响地区的减贫工作中愈发受到青睐。尽管其普及度与日俱增，但现有关于该类项目如何影响冲突的实证证据仍较为匮乏，且相关理论预测亦存在模糊性。我们依托一项以村庄为单位随机分配项目参与资格的实验，评估了有条件现金转移支付对菲律宾国内冲突的影响。研究发现，在项目实施的前9个月内，相较于对照组村庄，实验组村庄的冲突相关事件数量显著减少。借助当地叛乱分子影响力的独特调研数据，我们还发现该项目削弱了实验组村庄内叛乱分子的影响力。针对潜在溢出效应的分析结果尚无定论：尽管未发现具有统计显著性的溢出效应，但我们同样无法排除村庄层面的干预效果源于叛乱活动从实验组村庄向对照组村庄转移这一情形。