Labour outmigration, agricultural productivity and food security, Wave 1, Part 1: Household agriculture and migration survey

Using the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS) existing surveys and national surveys (Demographic Health Survey and Nepal Living Standard Survey), we designed a 43-minute Household Agriculture and Migration Survey. This survey includes information on household agricultural practices, including crop production and farm technology use, wealth, assets, income, consumption, food security and information about each household member currently away from home, and remittances received by the household. In addition, an Agriculture and Remittance Calendar was designed to collect retrospective data on farming/non-farming status, crop production, land under cultivation, farm technology use, migration and remittances from 2006 through July 2015 matching with the agricultural production data collection in 2006. This draft survey was rigorously pre-tested in 50 households before data collection was launched.
The first wave of the survey was administered to 2,255 households residing within 151 CVFS sample neighborhoods July 15, 2015 through December 20, 2015. Data collection for the first wave is complete with a response rate of 98.2%. These data are part of the Labour Outmigration, Agricultural Productivity and Food Security project data collection, which also includes the Women's Time Use Survey data(see Related Resources). Households that participated include the women surveyed in the related data collection. Data from additional waves of the Household Agriculture and Migration Survey will be deposited after data collection is completed.
<p>We propose to investigate the consequences of labour outmigration on agricultural productivity in a poor agricultural country persistently facing food security problems. We aim to answer three high-priority scientific and policy questions: To what extent
(a) Does labour outmigration influence (i) agricultural productivity, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?
(b) Do remittances influence (i) farm technology use, (ii) women's participation in farming, and (iii) exit from farming?
(c) Do farm technology use and exit from farming influence subsequent outmigration?
With an estimated 214 million people l--mostly from poor agricultural regions to more industrialized countries-international migration is a key concern in scholarly and policy arenas. This unprecedented phenomenon has wide-ranging consequences both for migrant-sending and receiving locations. This study focuses on one specific, but crucial consequence - the impact of labour outmigration on agricultural productivity in migrant-sending areas. As the agriculture productivity in poor subsistence economies is closely connected with one of the world's epidemic problems: food security. FAO estimated about 870 million people were undernourished in the period 2010-12. The vast majority of these - 852 million live in developing countries. Thus, increased agricultural productivity in poor countries is a key tool for alleviating this problem. This proposed project aims to better understand the relationship between labour outmigration and agriculture, providing crucial information for scientific and policy development of food security concerns.
Understanding the link between outmigration and agriculture is complicated by the fact that migration does not happen randomly. Additionally, changes in agricultural practices and migration are likely to influence each other. Thus, the empirical demands for adjudicating potential reciprocal relationships are high, limiting the ability of previous research to speak to these questions. To address this complication, we will leverage the Chitwan Valley Family Study (CVFS), a case control comparison design at the community level with a 15-year panel study of a stratified systematic sample of communities, households, and individuals in Nepal. This unusual panel study enables us to address the non-random selection of individuals into migration. Furthermore, the case control design is particularly powerful for controlling macro-level effects (e.g. climate, prices, and policies) to detect the effect of change and variation in the phenomena of interest: farm labour loss, remittances, farm technology use, agricultural productivity, and women's participation in farming. Despite the wealth of panel data, answering our specific questions requires a modest level of new data collection. Our proposed panel measurement will involve multi-mode mixed methods data collection with appropriate temporal order and timing precision necessary to assess the relationships31.
This study will generate high quality scientific outcomes that will be widely disseminated around the world. These outcomes are (i) comprehensive panel data with potential to address perplexing methodological problems; and (ii) empirical evidence of the consequences of labour outmigration, agricultural productivity, and its interplay with gender. First, the data will be made available through ICPSR and UK Data Service and publications through websites will be provided to broader audiences. Second, the findings will be disseminated among the scientific communities through presentations at national and international conferences and publication of scientific articles, research briefs, and policy briefs. Finally, our capacity building training will also enhance scientific and analytical capacity of faculty and scientists of host country institutions (AFU, NARC and others).
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基于奇旺谷家庭研究（Chitwan Valley Family Study，CVFS）的现有调查及全国性调查（人口健康调查Demographic Health Survey、尼泊尔生活水平调查Nepal Living Standard Survey），我们设计了一项时长43分钟的家庭农业与移民调查。该调查涵盖家庭农业实践信息，包括作物生产、农业技术应用、财富、资产、收入、消费、粮食安全，以及家庭当前外出成员的详情和家庭收到的汇款情况。此外，我们还设计了农业与汇款日历（Agriculture and Remittance Calendar），以收集2006年至2015年7月期间的回顾性数据，内容涉及农业/非农业状态、作物生产、耕地面积、农业技术应用、移民及汇款情况，并与2006年的农业生产数据收集相匹配。在正式启动数据收集前，本调查草案已在50户家庭中进行了严格的预测试。

第一波调查于2015年7月15日至12月20日在CVFS的151个样本社区内的2255户家庭中开展。第一波数据收集已完成，应答率达98.2%。这些数据属于“劳动力外流、农业生产力与粮食安全”项目数据收集的一部分，还包括女性时间利用调查数据（详见相关资源）。参与调查的家庭包含相关数据收集中被调查的女性。家庭农业与移民调查后续波次的数据将在收集完成后予以存档。

我们拟探讨劳动力外流对持续面临粮食安全问题的贫困农业国家农业生产力的影响。研究旨在回答三个高优先级的科学与政策问题：
（a）劳动力外流在多大程度上影响（i）农业生产力、（ii）女性农业参与度及（iii）农业退出行为？
（b）汇款在多大程度上影响（i）农业技术应用、（ii）女性农业参与度及（iii）农业退出行为？
（c）农业技术应用与农业退出行为是否影响后续的外流？

目前，约有2.14亿人（主要从贫困农业地区流向工业化程度更高的国家）进行国际移民，这一现象已成为学术界与政策领域的核心关切。这一前所未有的现象对移民输出地和接收地均产生了广泛影响。本研究聚焦于一个特定但关键的后果——劳动力外流对移民输出地区农业生产力的影响。在贫困的自给型经济体中，农业生产力与全球重大问题之一的粮食安全密切相关。联合国粮农组织（FAO）估计，2010-2012年期间约有8.7亿人营养不良，其中绝大多数（8.52亿）生活在发展中国家。因此，提升贫困国家的农业生产力是缓解这一问题的关键手段。本项目旨在深入理解劳动力外流与农业的关系，为粮食安全相关的科学研究与政策制定提供关键信息。

理解外流与农业的关联面临挑战，因为移民并非随机发生。此外，农业实践的变化与移民可能相互影响。因此，判定潜在互惠关系的实证需求极高，这限制了先前研究对这些问题的解答能力。为应对这一复杂性，我们将利用奇旺谷家庭研究（CVFS）——一项在尼泊尔社区层面采用病例对照比较设计（case control comparison design）的研究，包含对社区、家庭及个体的15年分层系统抽样（stratified systematic sample）面板研究（panel study）。这项独特的面板研究使我们能够解决移民个体的非随机选择问题。此外，病例对照设计在控制宏观层面效应（如气候、价格及政策）方面尤为有力，可用于检测目标现象（农业劳动力流失、汇款、农业技术应用、农业生产力及女性农业参与度）的变化与差异效应。尽管已有丰富的面板数据，但解答我们的特定问题仍需适度的新数据收集。我们拟开展的面板测量将采用多模式混合方法进行数据收集，确保具备评估相关关系所需的适当时间顺序与时间精度。

本研究将产生高质量的科学成果，并在全球范围内广泛传播。这些成果包括：（i）可解决复杂方法学问题的综合面板数据；（ii）关于劳动力外流、农业生产力及其与性别相互作用后果的实证证据。首先，数据将通过ICPSR（校际政治与社会研究联盟）和英国数据服务（UK Data Service）开放获取，并通过网站发布出版物以触达更广泛受众。其次，研究结果将通过在国内外会议上的报告、发表科学论文、研究简报及政策简报等形式在科学界传播。最后，我们的能力建设培训还将提升东道国机构（AFU、NARC等）教师与科学家的科研及分析能力。