La globalización y la política macroeconómica acentúan la financiarización y la fragilidad de las economías: el caso de México

Summary The predominant economic policies have promoted the financialization of Latin American economies, which has been to the detriment of the endogenous conditions of accumulation and has led the economy to depend on the behavior of exports and capital inflow, which is why they are placed in a context of high vulnerability. When these variables acted in a positive way, conditions of stability and certain growth were reached. By failing to act positively, imbalances in public finances and the external sector manifest themselves, destabilizing exchange rate parity, the capital market and slowing growth. Governments are reacting with restrictive monetary and fiscal policies, which further weaken economies. The Latin American economies and in particular the Mexican economy, which is the object of study, do not present prospects for growth towards the external market, given the slowdown in international trade, and the eventual protectionist policies that the new government will implement in the United States. There is also no prospect of inward growth, because economic liberalization and high levels of indebtedness prevent them from flexibilizing economic policy.

摘要 主流经济政策推动了拉美经济体的金融化进程，损害了其内生积累条件，使得拉美经济体陷入依赖出口与资本流入态势的格局，进而身处高脆弱性语境当中。当上述两类变量表现向好时，区域内可实现稳定局面与一定幅度的增长；当其表现欠佳时，公共财政与对外部门便会出现失衡，破坏汇率平价稳定、扰动资本市场并拖累经济增长。各国政府转而采取紧缩性货币与财政政策应对，此举进一步削弱了经济活力。拉美整体经济体，尤其是作为本次研究对象的墨西哥经济体，均难指望通过外部市场拉动增长：一方面国际贸易增速放缓，另一方面美国新一届政府或将推行贸易保护主义政策。同时，此类经济体也无法依靠内需拉动增长，因经济自由化进程与高企的债务水平制约了经济政策的灵活调整空间。