Replication Data for: Good Enough? Public Perceptions of Success in Military Interventions

Public perceptions of successful military interventions carry high stakes for democratic governance. Expectations of success help mobilize support for military action, while political punishment for failure deters elected leaders from starting wars they cannot win. What factors drive public perceptions of success? How susceptible are public perceptions of success to elite manipulation? Treating perceptions of success as a dependent variable in their own right, I show that public evaluations are both multifaceted and malleable. I first use a conjoint experiment to capture the multiple factors that influence public perceptions of successful interventions. Two additional survey experiments then gauge whether elite rhetoric and priming can shift public metrics for success. The results show that the public’s concept of success is complex, weighing the ultimate costs and benefits of intervention along multiple dimensions. Leaders, however, have significant power to offset perceptions of and avoid accountability for failure.民众对军事干预成功与否的认知，对民主治理有着举足轻重的影响。对干预成功的期待有助于动员民众支持军事行动，而对失败的政治问责则会威慑当选领导人发动无法取胜的战争。究竟哪些因素会驱动民众形成对干预成功的认知？民众的成功认知又在多大程度上易受精英操纵？本文将成功认知本身作为独立因变量展开研究，结果显示民众的评价兼具多维度性与可塑造性。首先，本文采用联合实验（conjoint experiment）法，捕捉影响民众对军事干预成功认知的多重因素；随后通过两项额外的调查实验，验证精英言论与启动效应（priming）能否改变民众的成功评判标准。研究结果表明，民众眼中的成功概念十分复杂，需从多维度权衡军事干预的最终成本与收益。但领导人拥有显著的影响力，能够扭转民众对失败的认知，进而规避失败应承担的政治责任。