Epistemic beliefs’ role in promoting misperceptions and conspiracist ideation

Widespread misperceptions undermine citizens’ decision-making ability. Conclusions based on falsehoods and conspiracy theories are by definition flawed. This article demonstrates that individuals’ epistemic beliefs–beliefs about the nature of knowledge and how one comes to know–have important implications for perception accuracy. The present study uses a series of large, nationally representative surveys of the U.S. population to produce valid and reliable measures of three aspects of epistemic beliefs: reliance on intuition for factual beliefs (Faith in Intuition for facts), importance of consistency between empirical evidence and beliefs (Need for evidence), and conviction that “facts” are politically constructed (Truth is political). Analyses confirm that these factors complement established predictors of misperception, substantively increasing our ability to explain both individuals’ propensity to engage in conspiracist ideation, and their willingness to embrace falsehoods about high-profile scientific and political issues. Individuals who view reality as a political construct are significantly more likely to embrace falsehoods, whereas those who believe that their conclusions must hew to available evidence tend to hold more accurate beliefs. Confidence in the ability to intuitively recognize truth is a uniquely important predictor of conspiracist ideation. Results suggest that efforts to counter misperceptions may be helped by promoting epistemic beliefs emphasizing the importance of evidence, cautious use of feelings, and trust that rigorous assessment by knowledgeable specialists is an effective guard against political manipulation.

普遍存在的错误认知会削弱公民的决策能力。基于虚假信息与阴谋论得出的结论，从定义上便存在缺陷。本文证实，个体的认知信念（epistemic beliefs）——即关于知识本质以及知识获取路径的信念——对认知准确性具有重要影响。本研究通过一系列针对美国人口的大型全国代表性调查，为认知信念的三个维度开发了有效且可靠的测量量表：一是依赖直觉进行事实性判断的倾向（Faith in Intuition for facts），二是重视实证证据与信念一致性的需求（Need for evidence），三是坚信"事实"由政治建构的信念（Truth is political）。分析结果证实，这些因素可补充现有错误认知预测变量，显著提升了我们解释个体参与阴谋论思维的倾向，以及其接受高关注度科学与政治议题虚假信息意愿的能力。将现实视为政治建构的个体，接受虚假信息的概率显著更高；而认为自身结论必须契合现有实证证据的个体，往往持有更准确的认知。对直观辨识真相能力的自信，是预测个体阴谋论思维的一项极具独特性的重要变量。研究结果表明，若能倡导重视实证证据、审慎运用直觉感受，并信任专业人士的严谨评估可有效抵御政治操纵的认知信念，将有助于开展纠正错误认知的相关工作。