Data for the manuscript "Climatic suitability and invasion risk of the elm zigzag sawfly in North America"

The elm zigzag sawfly, <i>Aproceros leucopoda </i>(Hymenoptera), native to eastern Asia, is among the most concerning potential pests for elm trees (<i>Ulmus</i> spp.); elms form an important component in many North Temperate forests. This sawfly species invaded Europe in 2003 and spread rapidly across much of that continent. In 2020, it was recorded in North America, and it has since become established in several parts of the eastern United States and Canada. Sawfly infestations can cause severe elm tree defoliation, branch die-back that weakens tree health, and potentially tree mortality. Sawfly invasions have the potential to further exacerbate elm decline, especially in conjunction with other pressures, including Dutch elm disease (<i>Ophiostoma ulmi</i>). We used rigorous approaches from distributional ecology to explore climatic suitability for <i>A. leocopoda</i> across North America, considering various sources of uncertainty in the data. We found that, without control, the elm zigzag sawfly could establish populations across eastern Canada, much of the central-eastern and northeastern United States, as well as in the Pacific Northwest. More southern areas of North America were not climatically suitable for this species. Predicted suitable areas for the sawfly overlap broadly with elm distributions, highlighting the need to control this invasion to mitigate potential economic and environmental impacts.

榆锯齿叶蜂（elm zigzag sawfly）<i>Aproceros leucopoda</i>（膜翅目Hymenoptera）原产于东亚，是榆树（榆属<i>Ulmus</i> spp.）最具威胁的潜在害虫之一；榆树是诸多北温带森林的重要组成成分。该锯蜂物种于2003年入侵欧洲，并在欧洲大陆大部分区域快速扩散。2020年，北美地区首次记录到该物种，随后其在美国东部多个区域及加拿大成功定殖。锯蜂侵染可引发榆树严重落叶、枝条枯梢，削弱树势，甚至导致树木死亡。锯蜂入侵可能进一步加剧榆树衰退，尤其是在与荷兰榆树病（<i>Ophiostoma ulmi</i>）等其他胁迫因素共同作用的情况下。本研究采用分布生态学的严谨研究方法，综合考量数据中的各类不确定性来源，探究了北美范围内<i>A. leucopoda</i>的气候适宜性。研究结果表明，若不采取防控措施，榆锯齿叶蜂可在加拿大东部、美国中东部及东北部大部分区域，以及太平洋西北地区建立种群。北美南部多数区域的气候不适宜该物种生存。该锯蜂的潜在适宜分布区与榆树的分布范围广泛重叠，这凸显了防控该入侵物种以减轻其潜在经济与环境影响的必要性。