The parameter stability test.

This paper examines the bidirectional relationship between consumer confidence (CC) and housing prices (HP) using a bootstrap sub-sample rolling causality test. The results show that CC and HP interact dynamically, with the direction of causality depending on economic conditions and participants’ behaviors. On one hand, rising CC can stimulate housing demand, pushing HP upward. Conversely, when economic uncertainty rises, housing may serve as a hedge asset, attracting investment even amid weak CC, which further drives HP growth. Meanwhile, HP fluctuations also asymmetrically impact CC. Higher HP can boost household wealth and CC, but excessive HP growth may strain affordability, increasing mortgage burdens and reducing CC. These findings highlight the time-varying, reciprocal nature of CC-HP linkages, emphasizing the need for adaptive policy responses to stabilize both markets during economic turbulence.

本文采用bootstrap子样本滚动因果检验方法，探究消费者信心（Consumer Confidence，CC）与住房价格（Housing Prices，HP）之间的双向互动关系。研究结果表明，二者存在动态互动机制，因果关系的方向取决于宏观经济环境与市场参与主体的行为模式。一方面，消费者信心提升可刺激住房需求，推动住房价格上涨；反之，当经济不确定性攀升时，住房可作为对冲资产，即便在消费者信心疲软的背景下仍能吸引投资，进而进一步推高住房价格涨幅。与此同时，住房价格波动对消费者信心的影响亦呈现非对称性：住房价格上涨可提升家庭财富与消费者信心，但住房价格过快增长则可能加剧居民购房负担、加重房贷压力，进而削弱消费者信心。上述研究结果凸显了CC与HP之间联动关系的时变互惠特性，同时强调在经济动荡时期，需采取适应性政策以稳定两大市场。