dphase_larsimby: hydrological model LARSIM (Bavaria) forecasts run by WWA-KE for the MAP D-PHASE project

Project: D-PHASE, Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region - The Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP, the first WWRP Research and Development Project (RDP)) is an international research initiative devoted to the study of atmospheric and hydrological processes over mountainous terrain. It aims towards expanding our knowledge of weather and climate over complex topography, and thereby to improve current forecasting capabilities. A large-scale field phase in the Alpine region took place from 7 September to 15 November 1999. D-PHASE (Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region) is a WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) and aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of MAP, in particular the ability of forecasting heavy precipitation and related flooding events in the Alpine region. The MAP FDP will address the entire forecasting chain ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling(km-scale), hydrological modelling, and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The demonstration period of MAP D-PHASE will be 1 June to 30 November 2007. See also official homepage: http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm Please be aware of the common COPS/GOP/D-PHASE data policy, which you please find at http://cops.wdc-climate.de/ Summary: Hydrological forecasts with hydrological model LARSIM (LARSIM=LArge Area Runoof Simulation Model, BY=Bavaria, Conceptual RR-model. Forecast depth: 72 hours.) for rivers Iller and Lech (DE) driven by numerical weather prediction models LME, GME, GFS. The runs were performed by "Wasserwirtschaftsamt Kempten" (WWA-KE).

项目名称：D-PHASE，即阿尔卑斯地区洪水事件概率水文与大气模拟演示项目（Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region）。中尺度阿尔卑斯计划（Mesoscale Alpine Programme, MAP，世界天气研究计划（World Weather Research Programme, WWRP）首个研发项目（Research and Development Project, RDP））是一项致力于山地地形大气与水文过程研究的国际科研计划，旨在深化对复杂地形区天气与气候的认知，进而提升现有预报能力。1999年9月7日至11月15日，阿尔卑斯地区开展了大规模野外试验阶段。

D-PHASE作为WWRP预报演示项目（WWRP Forecast Demonstration Project, FDP），旨在展示MAP的多项研究成果，尤其针对阿尔卑斯地区强降水及相关洪涝事件的预报能力。MAP FDP将覆盖完整预报链条，涵盖有限区域集合预报、高分辨率大气模拟（公里级尺度）、水文模拟、临近预报，直至终端用户决策环节，即计划构建一套端到端的预报系统。MAP D-PHASE的演示周期为2007年6月1日至11月30日。官方主页详见：http://www.map.meteoswiss.ch/map-doc/dphase/dphase_info.htm。请注意通用的COPS/GOP/D-PHASE数据政策，相关信息可查阅：http://cops.wdc-climate.de/

摘要：针对德国境内伊勒河（Iller）与莱希河（Lech），采用水文模型LARSIM（全称LArge Area Runoff Simulation Model，大区域径流模拟模型；BY为巴伐利亚州（Bavaria）的缩写，该模型为概念性降雨径流模型）开展水文预报，预报时效为72小时。预报驱动数据来自数值天气预报模式LME、GME、GFS，相关试验由"Wasserwirtschaftsamt Kempten"（WWA-KE）完成。