Estimated results of Geographical heterogeneity.

Promoting industrial transformation and upgrading (ITU) is the vital driving force for achieving high-quality economic development. This paper systematically interprets the theoretical mechanism of the impact of local government tax competition on ITU from a theoretical perspective. On this basis, a two-way fixed effects model is used to examine the impact of local government tax competition on ITU, the transmission mechanism, and the moderating effect of technological innovation. The study finds an inverted “U-shaped” relationship between local government tax competition and ITU, with tax structure, income distribution, and industrial agglomeration playing a non-linear mediating role. Improvements in technological innovation will reinforce the inverted “U-shaped” relationship between local government tax competition and ITU. The inverted “U-shaped” impact of local government tax competition on ITU is more pronounced in cities without economic growth targets, cities in eastern China, economically developed cities, and cities with weak tax enforcement capabilities. The research findings provide theoretical support and decision-making references for optimizing local tax policies and promoting high-quality economic development.

产业转型升级（Industrial Transformation and Upgrading，简称ITU）是实现经济高质量发展的核心驱动力。本文从理论层面系统阐释了地方政府税收竞争对产业转型升级的影响机理。在此基础上，本文采用双向固定效应模型，实证检验了地方政府税收竞争对产业转型升级的影响、传导机制以及技术创新的调节效应。研究发现，地方政府税收竞争与产业转型升级之间呈倒“U”型关系，税收结构、收入分配与产业集聚发挥了非线性中介作用。技术创新水平的提升会强化地方政府税收竞争与产业转型升级之间的倒“U”型关系。地方政府税收竞争对产业转型升级的倒“U”型影响，在无经济增长目标的城市、东部地区城市、经济发达城市以及税收征管强度较弱的城市中更为显著。本研究结论为优化地方税收政策、推动经济高质量发展提供了理论支撑与决策参考。