China GDP: Some Corrections

Historical GDP estimates for China by Broadberry, Guan, and Li are problematic because of an implausible series for government expenditure. Revised estimates reduce GDP per capita, mainly during the Ming, by up to a third. Two peaks in income now stand out: the Song efflorescence and the years around 1700. If the latter peak is real, comparisons of the Yangzi delta with leading European countries show a Great Crossing in the middle ages, a Great Convergence in the seventeenth century, and a Great Divergence in the eighteenth. Otherwise, the Great Divergence may date from the sixteenth century.

布罗德伯里（Broadberry）、关（Guan）与李（Li）所提出的中国历史GDP估算结果存在缺陷，其根源在于所采用的政府支出时间序列缺乏可信度。经修正后的估算结果显示，人均GDP最高可下调三分之一，这一调整主要覆盖明代时期。当前有两个收入峰值格外醒目：宋代经济繁荣期与1700年前后的时段。若后一个峰值属实，将长江三角洲与欧洲主要国家进行对比后可发现：中世纪曾出现"大跨越"（Great Crossing），17世纪呈现"大趋同"（Great Convergence），18世纪则出现"大分流"（Great Divergence）；反之，"大分流"的起始时间或可追溯至16世纪。