The effect of public policies and local aspects on economic development: an empirical analysis based on the municipalities of Minas Gerais

Abstract This research used cross-section data, from 2016, to analyze the effect of public spending distribution and some economic, demographic and political preferences on municipalities’ development from Minas Gerais (i.e.: Índice Mineiro de Responsabilidade Social - IMRS) and their sub-dimensions (i.e.: education, health, social vulnerability, security, sanitation/housing/environment and culture/sport/leisure). Thus, the variables were selected by Extreme Bounds Analysis - EBA and econometric-spatial models were estimated. The results indicate that development is typical from smaller cities, far from the capital (safer), with higher elderly people proportion (less subject to crime), lower fertility (trait of safer and less vulnerable places), good tax autonomy (attribute of less vulnerable areas, with more sanitation and culture/leisure), lower spending on education and public administration and higher on housing. Furthermore, the results minimize the state (i.e.: municipal administration) and the local productive profile relevance on development and reveal negative externalities from the state capital.

摘要 本研究采用2016年横截面数据，分析公共支出分配以及部分经济、人口与政治偏好对巴西米纳斯吉拉斯州（Minas Gerais）各市政辖区发展水平的影响，以米纳斯吉拉斯社会责任指数（Índice Mineiro de Responsabilidade Social，IMRS）及其子维度（教育、卫生、社会脆弱性、安全、公共设施/住房/环境以及文化/体育/休闲）为评估指标。研究通过极值边界分析（Extreme Bounds Analysis，EBA）筛选变量，并构建空间计量模型进行估计。结果显示，发展水平较高的辖区多为距离州府较远的小城市（此类区域治安更佳），老年人口占比更高（受犯罪侵扰的概率更低），生育率更低（这是区域治安良好、社会脆弱性更低的典型特征），税收自治能力较强（这类区域往往公共设施与文化休闲资源更为充足，社会脆弱性更低），教育与公共行政支出占比更低，而住房相关支出占比更高。此外，研究结果弱化了州级行政层面（即市政当局）与地方生产特征对区域发展的相关性影响，并揭示出州府存在负外部性效应。