Vegetation resistance to compound drought and heatwave events buffers the spatial shift velocities of vegetation vulnerability

Abstract: Global warming is increasing compound drought and heatwave events. This elevates vegetation loss probability. Despite spatial shifts in vegetation loss probability being crucial for predicting spatial redistribution patterns of vegetation vulnerability across terrestrial ecosystems, they remain poorly understood under compound drought and heatwave events. In this study, using a vine copula model, vegetation loss probability was quantified under compound drought and heatwave events. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability were examined using the concept of velocity change. Spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability would undergo substantial increase based on the satellite observations and future simulations. However, vegetation resistance to droughts buffers spatial shift velocities of vegetation loss probability (p &lt; 0.01). These findings provide evidence that vegetation vulnerability patterns will undergo substantial spatial changes under compound drought and heatwave events, leading to a spatial redistribution of vegetation in disturbance-prone areas.<br>

摘要：全球变暖正加剧复合干旱与热浪事件的发生，这提高了植被损失的概率。尽管植被损失概率的空间转移对于预测陆地生态系统中植被脆弱性的空间再分布模式至关重要，但在复合干旱与热浪事件下，人们对此仍知之甚少。本研究采用藤Copula模型（vine copula model），量化了复合干旱与热浪事件下的植被损失概率；利用速度变化的概念，分析了植被损失概率的空间转移速度。基于卫星观测数据和未来模拟结果，植被损失概率的空间转移速度将显著提升；然而，植被对干旱的抗性可缓冲该空间转移速度（p < 0.01）。这些研究结果表明，在复合干旱与热浪事件下，植被脆弱性模式将发生显著的空间变化，进而导致易受干扰区域的植被空间再分布。