1.0-second spectral response acceleration (5% of critical damping) with a 1% probability of exceedance in 1 year

A one-year seismic hazard forecast for the Central and Eastern United States, based on induced and natural earthquakes, has been produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. The model assumes that earthquake rates calculated from several different time windows will remain relatively stationary and can be used to forecast earthquake hazard and damage intensity for the year 2017. This assessment is the first step in developing an operational earthquake forecast for the CEUS, and the analysis could be revised with updated seismicity and model parameters. Consensus input models consider alternative earthquake catalog durations, smoothing parameters, maximum magnitudes, and ground motion estimates, and represent uncertainties in earthquake occurrence and diversity of opinion in the science community. Near some areas of active induced earthquakes, hazard is higher than in the 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) by more than a factor of 3; the 2014 NSHM did not consider induced earthquakes. In some areas, previously observed induced earthquakes have stopped, so the seismic hazard reverts back to the 2014 NSHM. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. This particular data set is for horizontal spectral response acceleration for 1.0-second period with a 1 percent probability of exceedance in 1 year. The data are for the Central and Eastern United States and are based on the one-year model.

美国地质调查局（U.S. Geological Survey）基于诱发地震与天然地震数据，完成了美国中部及东部地区（Central and Eastern United States，以下简称CEUS）的一年期地震灾害预报。该模型假定，基于多个不同时间窗计算得到的地震发生率将保持相对稳定，可用于预测2017年的地震灾害与破坏烈度。本次评估是为CEUS构建业务化地震预报的第一步，后续可结合更新后的地震活动性数据与模型参数对该分析进行修订。共识输入模型考量了不同的地震目录时长、平滑参数、最大震级与地面运动估计方案，同时体现了地震发生的不确定性以及科学界的观点分歧。在部分诱发地震活跃区域，本次预报的灾害水平较2014年美国地质调查局国家地震灾害模型（National Seismic Hazard Model，以下简称NSHM）高出3倍以上；而2014年的NSHM并未考虑诱发地震的影响。在部分区域，此前监测到的诱发地震已停止活动，因此该区域的地震灾害水平回归至2014年NSHM的预测结果。本数据集包含了经纬度间隔为0.05度的网格点的灾害曲线计算结果。本数据集特指1秒周期下、1年内超越概率为1%的水平谱响应加速度数据。该数据集覆盖美国中部及东部地区，基于前述一年期地震灾害预报模型构建。