Integrating stakeholders’ perspectives and spatial modelling to develop scenarios of future land use and land cover change in northern Tanzania

Rapid rates of land use and land cover change (LULCC) in eastern Africa and limited instances of genuinely equal partnerships involving scientists, communities and decision makers challenge the development of robust pathways toward future environmental and socioeconomic sustainability. We use a participatory modelling tool, Kesho, to assess the biophysical, socioeconomic, cultural and governance factors that influenced past (1959-1999) and present (2000-2018) LULCC in northern Tanzania and to simulate four scenarios of land cover change to the year 2030. Simulations of the scenarios used spatial modelling to integrate stakeholders’ perceptions of future environmental change with social and environmental data on recent trends in LULCC. From stakeholders’ perspectives, between 1959 and 2018, LULCC was influenced by climate variability, availability of natural resources, agriculture expansion, urbanization, tourism growth, and legislation governing land access and natural resource manageme...

东非地区土地利用与土地覆被变化（LULCC）的快速速率，以及科学家、社区与决策者之间真正平等合作关系的稀缺性，对未来环境与社会经济可持续发展的稳健路径构建构成了挑战。我们采用参与式建模工具（participatory modelling tool）Kesho，评估影响坦桑尼亚北部过去（1959-1999年）和现今（2000-2018年）LULCC的生物物理、社会经济、文化及治理因素，并模拟截至2030年的四种土地覆被变化情景。情景模拟采用空间建模（spatial modelling）方法，将利益相关者对未来环境变化的认知与LULCC近期趋势的社会及环境数据相整合。从利益相关者的视角来看，1959至2018年间，LULCC受到气候变率（climate variability）、自然资源可获得性、农业扩张、城市化、旅游业增长以及土地获取与自然资源管理相关立法等因素的影响...