Replication Data for: Natural Hazards, Social Policy, and Electoral Performance: Evidence from the 2017 Earthquake in Mexico City

These data files replicate the main findings of the paper "Natural Hazards, Social Policy, and Electoral Performance: Evidence from the 2017 Earthquake in Mexico City". The objective of this study is to analyze the political dimension of the 19-S earthquake that hit Mexico City in 2017, a few months prior to the 2018 elections. Using fine-grained geospatial data, our results show that candidates from the city-level incumbent PRD had a small increase in their vote share in 2018 compared to the previous election in precincts more exposed to the damaged caused by the earthquake (both in terms of distance-based and per capita measures), accounting for the seismic profile and socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhood. We show that the implementation of disaster recovery policy explains part of this relationship; moreover, voters were as electorally responsive to a future risk-reduction strategy as to a reconstruction credit

本数据集文件复刻了论文《自然灾害、社会政策与选举表现：来自2017年墨西哥城地震的实证证据》的核心研究发现。本研究旨在剖析2017年袭击墨西哥城、距2018年墨西哥大选仅数月的19-S地震的政治影响维度。本研究借助精细粒度的地理空间数据开展分析，结果显示：在控制社区地震活动特征与社会经济属性的前提下，与上次选举相比，在受地震破坏程度更高（基于距离与人均破坏量双重衡量标准）的选区中，2018年墨西哥城民主革命党（PRD）现任候选人的得票率出现小幅提升。本研究证实，灾后恢复政策的实施可部分解释这一关联；此外，选民对未来风险防控策略的选举响应度，与对灾后重建信贷的响应度不相上下。