Count-based formation prediction.

In modern soccer, strategy and tactics significantly impact team success. In this study, the application of these methodologies within the domain of association soccer is examined, with a particular focus on predicting team strategies via team trend analysis. Using a dataset comprising matches from the top five European soccer leagues, we analyzed team performance trends over time using the Elo rating system and rolling regression. Predicting strategies from soccer match datasets is a challenging. In our study, we propose methods based on count and rank to address these challenges. For the count-based method, the number of forwards, midfielders, and defenders is used to calculate respective defense and attack scores. For the rank-based method, teams are classified into various levels based on their rankings, and strategies are evaluated accordingly. This approach provides a more detailed perspective on strategic tendencies by considering team composition and performance at each level. Experimental results demonstrate the potential of our proposed methods to accurately identify and predict team strategies, offering significant implications for tactical decision-making in professional soccer. The findings indicate that the accuracy of predicting defensive strategies using count-based predictions was approximately 85%, while the performance of predicting aggressive strategies through rank-based predictions was 89%. Our methodology can be extended to the development of a predictive model aimed at forecasting team strategies, thereby assisting coaches with more effective preparation for upcoming matches.

在现代足球领域，战略与战术对球队赛事成败有着至关重要的影响。本研究聚焦于足球赛事领域中此类方法论的应用，尤其侧重于通过球队趋势分析预测球队战术策略。本研究使用涵盖欧洲五大顶级足球联赛赛事的数据集，借助Elo评分系统（Elo rating system）与滚动回归（rolling regression）方法，对球队随时间推移的竞技表现趋势展开分析。基于足球赛事数据集预测球队战术策略是一项极具挑战性的任务。为此，本研究提出两类基于计数与排名的解决方案以应对上述挑战。针对基于计数的方法，本研究通过统计球队前锋、中场与后卫的人员数量，分别计算对应的防守与进攻评分。而针对基于排名的方法，研究团队将球队按照赛事排名划分为不同层级，并据此对其战术策略进行评估。该思路通过考量不同层级球队的人员配置与竞技表现，能够更细致地展现球队的战术倾向。实验结果证明，本研究所提出的方法具备精准识别与预测球队战术策略的潜力，可为职业足球领域的战术决策提供重要参考价值。研究结果显示，基于计数方法的防守战术预测准确率约为85%，而基于排名方法的进攻型战术预测准确率则达到89%。本研究的方法论可进一步拓展至球队战术策略预测模型的开发中，从而帮助教练团队更高效地备战后续赛事。