Replication Data for: Is the Future Female? A Conjoint Experiment on Voter Preferences in Six Arab Countries

Despite growing evidence of pro-female bias in the electorate elsewhere, conventional wisdom holds that voters in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) prefer male candidates, presumably due to sexism. We test this conventional wisdom using a conjoint experiment administered to over 30,000 respondents in six MENA countries to explore gender and candidate electability. We find both male and female respondents are more likely to express support for female candidates and see them as more capable than their male counterparts, even in stereotypically male domains. We argue the increasing demand for political outsiders explains these results. In highlighting the importance of such changes, our study expands the application of gender congruity theory in the MENA and beyond by offering evidence that both changes in gender stereotypes (i.e., gender roles) and in what citizens desire in leaders (i.e., leader roles) reduce anti-female bias at the polls.

尽管越来越多证据表明其他地区的选民群体存在亲女性偏见，但传统共识认为，中东与北非（Middle East and North Africa, MENA）地区的选民更青睐男性候选人，推测其原因为性别歧视。本研究依托在6个MENA国家开展的联合分析实验（conjoint experiment），覆盖超3万名受访者，以此检验这一传统共识，并探讨性别与候选人当选可能性之间的关联。研究结果显示，无论男性还是女性受访者，均更倾向于支持女性候选人，且认为女性候选人比男性同行更具能力——即便在传统男性主导的领域亦是如此。本研究认为，民众对政治圈外来者的日益增长的需求，可解释上述研究结果。本研究着重强调此类变革的重要性，通过提供证据表明：性别刻板印象（即性别角色）的转变，以及民众对领导者的期望（即领导角色）的变化，均能降低选举中的反女性偏见，由此拓展了性别契合理论（gender congruity theory）在MENA地区乃至全球范围内的应用场景。