Seasonal mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the 90% percentile projected for 2066 - 2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), for DJF season under the RCP 4.5 pathway

Seasonal (DJF) mean near-surface (2m) temperature (°C) change from the 90% percentile projected for 2066-2095, relative to present (1976 - 2005), under the RCP 4.5 pathway for the southern African region. To generate the image, nine coarse General Circulation Models (GCM) are downscaled to a finer spatial resolution (0.44°x 0.44°) using the Rossby Centre regional model (RCA4) forcing its lateral boundaries. The model simulated daily temperature averages, which are used to generate projections of seasonal change. The projections are generated using the medium to low (RCP4.5) pathway which associates CO2 concentrations of approximately 560ppm by the year 2100. The associated RMSD it calculated and shows the uncertainty range of the projected model simulated residual values, and gives a relative perspective of spatial areas associated with higher and lower projection uncertainties.

南部非洲地区在典型浓度路径4.5（RCP 4.5）情景下，2066-2095年期间季节性（DJF，即12月-次年2月）平均近地表（2米）温度（°C）相对于当前（1976-2005年）的90百分位数变化。为生成该图像，9个粗分辨率全球环流模型（General Circulation Model, GCM）通过罗斯比中心区域模型（Rossby Centre Regional Model, RCA4）强迫其侧边界，降尺度至更精细的空间分辨率（0.44°×0.44°）。模型模拟的日平均温度被用于生成季节性变化的预估结果。这些预估基于中低排放情景（RCP4.5）生成，该情景下2100年二氧化碳浓度约为560ppm。计算得到的相关均方根误差（Root Mean Square Deviation, RMSD）展示了模型模拟预估残差的不确定性范围，并提供了预估不确定性高低相关空间区域的相对视角。